Scaling of Stochasticity in Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever Epidemics

M. Aguiar; B.W. Kooi; J. Martins; N. Stollenwerk

Mathematical Modelling of Natural Phenomena (2012)

  • Volume: 7, Issue: 3, page 1-11
  • ISSN: 0973-5348

Abstract

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In this paper we analyze the stochastic version of a minimalistic multi-strain model, which captures essential differences between primary and secondary infections in dengue fever epidemiology, and investigate the interplay between stochasticity, seasonality and import. The introduction of stochasticity is needed to explain the fluctuations observed in some of the available data sets, revealing a scenario where noise and complex deterministic skeleton strongly interact. For large enough population size, the stochastic system can be well described by the deterministic skeleton gaining insight on the relevant parameter values purely on topological information of the dynamics, rather than classical parameter estimation of which application is in general restricted to fairly simple dynamical scenarios.

How to cite

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Aguiar, M., et al. "Scaling of Stochasticity in Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever Epidemics." Mathematical Modelling of Natural Phenomena 7.3 (2012): 1-11. <http://eudml.org/doc/222190>.

@article{Aguiar2012,
abstract = {In this paper we analyze the stochastic version of a minimalistic multi-strain model, which captures essential differences between primary and secondary infections in dengue fever epidemiology, and investigate the interplay between stochasticity, seasonality and import. The introduction of stochasticity is needed to explain the fluctuations observed in some of the available data sets, revealing a scenario where noise and complex deterministic skeleton strongly interact. For large enough population size, the stochastic system can be well described by the deterministic skeleton gaining insight on the relevant parameter values purely on topological information of the dynamics, rather than classical parameter estimation of which application is in general restricted to fairly simple dynamical scenarios.},
author = {Aguiar, M., Kooi, B.W., Martins, J., Stollenwerk, N.},
journal = {Mathematical Modelling of Natural Phenomena},
keywords = {dengue fever epidemiology; multi-strain model; external infections; deterministic skeleton; stochastic system},
language = {eng},
month = {6},
number = {3},
pages = {1-11},
publisher = {EDP Sciences},
title = {Scaling of Stochasticity in Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever Epidemics},
url = {http://eudml.org/doc/222190},
volume = {7},
year = {2012},
}

TY - JOUR
AU - Aguiar, M.
AU - Kooi, B.W.
AU - Martins, J.
AU - Stollenwerk, N.
TI - Scaling of Stochasticity in Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever Epidemics
JO - Mathematical Modelling of Natural Phenomena
DA - 2012/6//
PB - EDP Sciences
VL - 7
IS - 3
SP - 1
EP - 11
AB - In this paper we analyze the stochastic version of a minimalistic multi-strain model, which captures essential differences between primary and secondary infections in dengue fever epidemiology, and investigate the interplay between stochasticity, seasonality and import. The introduction of stochasticity is needed to explain the fluctuations observed in some of the available data sets, revealing a scenario where noise and complex deterministic skeleton strongly interact. For large enough population size, the stochastic system can be well described by the deterministic skeleton gaining insight on the relevant parameter values purely on topological information of the dynamics, rather than classical parameter estimation of which application is in general restricted to fairly simple dynamical scenarios.
LA - eng
KW - dengue fever epidemiology; multi-strain model; external infections; deterministic skeleton; stochastic system
UR - http://eudml.org/doc/222190
ER -

References

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