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Coupling a branching process to an infinite dimensional epidemic process

Andrew D. Barbour — 2010

ESAIM: Probability and Statistics

Branching process approximation to the initial stages of an epidemic process has been used since the 1950's as a technique for providing stochastic counterparts to deterministic epidemic threshold theorems. One way of describing the approximation is to construct both branching and epidemic processes on the same probability space, in such a way that their paths coincide for as long as possible. In this paper, it is shown, in the context of a Markovian model of parasitic infection, that coincidence...

Poisson perturbations

Andrew D. BarbourAihua Xia — 2010

ESAIM: Probability and Statistics

Stein's method is used to prove approximations in total variation to the distributions of integer valued random variables by (possibly signed) compound Poisson measures. For sums of independent random variables, the results obtained are very explicit, and improve upon earlier work of Kruopis (1983) and Čekanavičius (1997); coupling methods are used to derive concrete expressions for the error bounds. An example is given to illustrate the potential for application to sums of dependent random variables. ...

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