Survival probabilities for HIV infected patients through semi-Markov processes
In this paper we apply a parametric semi-Markov process to model the dynamic evolution of HIV-1 infected patients. The seriousness of the infection is rendered by the CD4+ T-lymphocyte counts. For this purpose we introduce the main features of nonhomogeneous semi-Markov models. After determining the transition probabilities and the waiting time distributions in each state of the disease, we solve the evolution equations of the process in order to estimate the interval transition probabilities. These...