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Optimal trend estimation in geometric asset price models

Michael Weba — 2005

Discussiones Mathematicae Probability and Statistics

In the general geometric asset price model, the asset price P(t) at time t satisfies the relation P ( t ) = P · e α · f ( t ) + σ · F ( t ) , t ∈ [0,T], where f is a deterministic trend function, the stochastic process F describes the random fluctuations of the market, α is the trend coefficient, and σ denotes the volatility. The paper examines the problem of optimal trend estimation by utilizing the concept of kernel reproducing Hilbert spaces. It characterizes the class of trend functions with the property that the trend coefficient...

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