Stochastic models of progression of cancer andtheir use in controlling cancer-related mortality

Marek Kimmel; Olga Gorlova

International Journal of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science (2003)

  • Volume: 13, Issue: 3, page 279-287
  • ISSN: 1641-876X

Abstract

top
A construction of a realistic statistical model of lung cancer risk and progression is proposed. The essential elements of the model are genetic and behavioral determinants of susceptibility, progression of the disease from precursor lesions through early (localized) tumors to disseminated disease, detection by various modalities, and medical intervention. Using model estimates as a foundation, mortality reduction caused by early-detection and intervention programs can be predicted under different scenarios. Genetic indicators of susceptibility to lung cancer should be used to define the highest-risk subgroups of the high-risk behavior population (smokers). The calibration and validation of the model requires applying our techniques to a variety of data sets available, including public registry data of the SEER type, data from the NCI lung cancer chest X-ray screening studies, and the recent ELCAP CT-scan screening study.

How to cite

top

Kimmel, Marek, and Gorlova, Olga. "Stochastic models of progression of cancer andtheir use in controlling cancer-related mortality." International Journal of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science 13.3 (2003): 279-287. <http://eudml.org/doc/207642>.

@article{Kimmel2003,
abstract = {A construction of a realistic statistical model of lung cancer risk and progression is proposed. The essential elements of the model are genetic and behavioral determinants of susceptibility, progression of the disease from precursor lesions through early (localized) tumors to disseminated disease, detection by various modalities, and medical intervention. Using model estimates as a foundation, mortality reduction caused by early-detection and intervention programs can be predicted under different scenarios. Genetic indicators of susceptibility to lung cancer should be used to define the highest-risk subgroups of the high-risk behavior population (smokers). The calibration and validation of the model requires applying our techniques to a variety of data sets available, including public registry data of the SEER type, data from the NCI lung cancer chest X-ray screening studies, and the recent ELCAP CT-scan screening study.},
author = {Kimmel, Marek, Gorlova, Olga},
journal = {International Journal of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science},
keywords = {simulation; lung cancer; genetic susceptibility; statistical modeling; tumor growth; environmental exposure; environmental eposure; simulations},
language = {eng},
number = {3},
pages = {279-287},
title = {Stochastic models of progression of cancer andtheir use in controlling cancer-related mortality},
url = {http://eudml.org/doc/207642},
volume = {13},
year = {2003},
}

TY - JOUR
AU - Kimmel, Marek
AU - Gorlova, Olga
TI - Stochastic models of progression of cancer andtheir use in controlling cancer-related mortality
JO - International Journal of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science
PY - 2003
VL - 13
IS - 3
SP - 279
EP - 287
AB - A construction of a realistic statistical model of lung cancer risk and progression is proposed. The essential elements of the model are genetic and behavioral determinants of susceptibility, progression of the disease from precursor lesions through early (localized) tumors to disseminated disease, detection by various modalities, and medical intervention. Using model estimates as a foundation, mortality reduction caused by early-detection and intervention programs can be predicted under different scenarios. Genetic indicators of susceptibility to lung cancer should be used to define the highest-risk subgroups of the high-risk behavior population (smokers). The calibration and validation of the model requires applying our techniques to a variety of data sets available, including public registry data of the SEER type, data from the NCI lung cancer chest X-ray screening studies, and the recent ELCAP CT-scan screening study.
LA - eng
KW - simulation; lung cancer; genetic susceptibility; statistical modeling; tumor growth; environmental exposure; environmental eposure; simulations
UR - http://eudml.org/doc/207642
ER -

References

top
  1. Amos C.I., Wu X., Spitz M.R. (1999): Is there a genetic basis for lung cancer susceptibility?. - Recent Results Cancer Res., Vol. 151, pp. 3-12. 
  2. Aoki T., Nakata H., Watanabe H., Nakamura K., Kasai T., Hashimoto H., Yasumoto K. and Kido M. (2000): Evolution of peripheral lung adenocarcinomas: CT findings correlated with histology and tumor doubling time. - Am. J. Roentgenol., Vol. 174, No. 3, pp. 763-768. 
  3. Auer H., Warncke K., Nowak D., Koops F., Jaeger U., Kurzbauer R. and Ruediger H.W.(1999): Variations of p53 in cultured fibroblasts of patients with lung cancer who have a presumed genetic predisposition. - Am. J. Clin. Oncol., Vol. 22, No. 3, pp. 278-282. 
  4. Bartoszynski R., Edler L., Hanin L., Kopp-Schneider A., Pavlova L., Tsodikov A., Zorin A. and Yakovlev A.Y. (2001): Modeling cancer detection: Tumor size as a source of information on unobservable stages of carcinogenesis. - Math. Biosci., Vol. 171, No. 2, pp. 113-142. Zbl0998.92021
  5. Bonneux L. (2002): Mammographic screening: No reliable supportingevidence? - Lancet, Vol. 360, No. 9334, pp. 720, (discussion). 
  6. du Bois A. (2002): Mammographic screening: No reliable supporting evidence? - Lancet, Vol. 360, No. 9334, pp. 719-720, (discussion). 
  7. Flehinger B.J. and Kimmel M. (1987): The natural history of lung cancer in a periodically screened population. - Biometrics, Vol. 43, No. 1, pp. 127-144. Zbl0616.62137
  8. Flehinger B.J., Kimmel M. and Melamed M.R. (1988): Natural history of adenocarcinoma-large cell carcinoma of the lung: Conclusions from screening programs in New York and Baltimore. - J. Natl. Cancer Inst., Vol. 80, No. 5, pp. 337-344. 
  9. Flehinger B.J., Kimmel M. and Melamed M.R. (1992): The effect of surgical treatment on survival from early lung cancer. Implications for screening. - Chest, Vol. 101, No. 4, pp. 1013-1018. 
  10. Flehinger B.J., Kimmel M., Polyak T. and Melamed M.R. (1993): Screening for lung cancer. The Mayo Lung Project revisited. - Cancer, Vol. 72, No. 5, pp. 1573-1580. 
  11. Gates T.J. (2001): Screening for cancer: Evaluating the evidence. -Am. Fam. Physician, Vol. 63, No. 3, pp. 513-522. 
  12. Goldman R., Enewold L., Pellizzari E., Beach J.B., Bowman E.D., Krishnan S.S.and Shields P.G. (2001): Smoking increases carcinogenic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in human lung tissue. - Cancer Res., Vol. 61, No. 17, pp. 6367-6371. 
  13. Gorlova O.Y., Kimmel M. and Henschke C. (2001): Modeling of long-term screening for lung carcinoma. - Cancer, Vol. 92, No. 6, pp. 1531-1540. 
  14. Grann V.R. and Neugut A.I. (2003): Lung cancer screening at any price? - JAMA, Vol. 289, No. 3, pp. 357-358. 
  15. Hasegawa M., Sone S., Takashima S., Li F., Yang Z.G., Maruyama Y. and Watanabe T. (2000): Growth rate of small lung cancers detected on mass CT screening. - Br.J. Radiol., Vol. 73, No. 876, pp. 1252-1259. 
  16. Henschke C.I. and Yankelevitz D.F. (2000): CT screening for lung cancer. - Radiol. Clin. North Am., Vol. 38, No. 3, pp. 487-495. 
  17. Henschke C.I., Yankelevitz D.F., Mirtcheva R., McGuinness G., McCauley D. and Miettinen O.S.; ELCAP Group. (2002): CT screening for lung cancer: Frequency and significance of part-solid and nonsolid nodules. - Am J Roentgenol., Vol. 178, No. 5, pp. 1053-1057. 
  18. Hillerdal G., Henschke C. and Sone S. (2001): Screening for lung cancer-new possibilities with new methods. - Lakartidningen, Vol. 98, No. 17, pp. 2047-2051. 
  19. Hsu T.C., Spitz M.R. and Schantz S.P. (1991): Mutagen sensitivity: A biologic marker of cancer cucseptibility. - Cancer Epidemiol. Biomarkers Prev., Vol. 1, No. 1, pp. 83-89. 
  20. Kakinuma R., Ohmatsu H., Kaneko M., Eguchi K., Naruke T., Nagai K., Nishiwaki Y., Suzuki A. and Moriyama N. (1999): Detection failures in spiral CT screening for lung cancer: Analysis of CT findings. - Radiology, Vol. 212, No. 1, pp. 61-66. 
  21. Kaneko M., Kusumoto M., Kobayashi T., Moriyama N., Naruke T., Ohmatsu H., Kakinuma R., Eguchi K., Nishiyama H. and Matsui E. (2000): Computed tomography screening for lung carcinoma in Japan. - Cancer, Vol. 89, Suppl 11, pp. 2485-2488. 
  22. Kimmel M. and Flehinger B.J. (1991): Nonparametric estimation of the size-metastasis relationship in solid cancers. - Biometrics, Vol. 47, No. 3, pp. 987-1004. Zbl0734.62105
  23. Mahadevia P.J., Fleisher L.A., Frick K.D., Eng J., Goodman S.N. and Powe N.R. (2003): Lung cancer screening with helical computed tomography in older adult smokers: A decision and cost-effectiveness analysis. - JAMA, Vol. 289, No. 3, pp. 313-322. 
  24. Marcus P.M. (2001): Lung cancer screening: An update. - J. Clin. Oncol., Vol. 19, Suppl. 1, pp. 83S-86S. 
  25. Marcus P.M., Bergstralh E.J., Fagerstrom R.M., Williams D.E., Fontana R., Taylor W.F. and Prorok P.C. (2000): Lung cancer mortality in the Mayo Lung Project: Impact of extended follow-up. - J. Natl. Cancer Inst., Vol. 92, No. 16, pp. 1308-1316. 
  26. Miettinen O.S., Henschke C.I., Pasmantier M.W., Smith J.P., Libby D.M., Yankelevitz D.F. (2002): Mammographic screening: No reliable supporting evidence? - Lancet, Vol. 359, No. 9304, pp. 404-405. 
  27. Olsen O. and Gotzsche P.C. (2001): Cochrane review on screening for breast cancer with mammography. - Lancet, Vol. 358, No. 9290, pp. 1340-1342. 
  28. Patz E.F. Jr, Goodman P.C. and Bepler G. (2000): Screening for lung cancer. -N. Engl. J. Med., Vol. 343, pp. 1627-1633. 
  29. Patz E.F. Jr, Black W.C. and Goodman P.C. (2001): CT screening for lung cancer: Not ready for routine practice. - Radiology, Vol. 221, No. 3, pp. 587-591. 
  30. Pettersson F. (1991): Efficacy of cervical cancer screening. - Med. Oncol. Tumor Pharmacother., Vol. 8, No. 3, pp. 175-181. 
  31. Smith R.A., Cokkinides V., von Eschenbach A.C., Levin B., Cohen C., Runowicz C.D., Sener S., Saslow D., Eyre H.J. (2002): American Cancer Society guidelines for the early detection of cancer. - CA Cancer J. Clin., Vol. 52, No. 1, pp. 8-22. 
  32. Sobue T., Suzuki T., Matsuda M., Kuroishi T., Ikeda S. and Naruke T. (1992): Survival for clinical stage I lung cancer not surgically treated. Comparison between screen-detected and symptom-detected cases. - Cancer, Vol. 69, No. 3, pp. 685-692. 
  33. Sone S., Li F., Yang Z.G., Honda T., Maruyama Y., Takashima S., Hasegawa M., Kawakami S., Kubo K., Haniuda M. and Yamanda T. (2001): Results of three-year mass screening programme for lung cancer using mobile low-dose spiral computed tomography scanner. - Br. J. Cancer, Vol. 84, No. 1, pp. 25-32. 
  34. Strauss G.M. (2000): Randomized population trials and screening for lung cancer: Breaking the cure barrier. - Cancer, Vol. 89, Suppl. 11, pp. 2399-2421. 
  35. Strauss G.M. (2002): The Mayo Lung Cohort: A regression analysis focusing on lung cancer incidence and mortality. - J. Clin. Oncol., Vol. 20, No. 8, pp. 1973-1983. 
  36. Strauss G.M, Gleason R.E. and Sugarbaker D.J. (1997): Screening for lung cancer. Another look; a different view. - Chest, Vol. 111, No. 3, pp. 754-768. 
  37. Strauss G.M., Gleason R.E. and Sugarbaker D.J. (1993): Screening for lung cancer re-examined. A reinterpretation of the Mayo Lung Project randomized trial on lung cancer screening. - Chest, Vol. 103, No. 4 (Suppl.), pp. 337S-341S. 
  38. Strong L.C. and Amos C.I. (1996): Inherited susceptibility, In: Cancer Epidemiology and Prevention (Schottenfeld D. and Fraumeni J.F. Jr, Eds.). - New York: Oxford University Press, pp. 559-583. 
  39. Van Klaveren R.J., Habbema J.D., de Koning H.J., Oudkerk M., Damhuis R.A. and Hoogsteden H.C. (2001): Screening for lung cancer in the Netherlands: The role of spiral CT scan. - Ned Tijdschr Geneeskd, Vol. 145, No. 11, pp. 521-526. 
  40. Wagner H. Jr and Ruckdeschel J.C. (1995): Screening, early detection, and early intervention strategies for lung cancer. - Cancer Contr., Vol 2, No. 6, pp. 493-502. 
  41. Walter S.D. and Day N.E. (1983): Estimation of the duration of a pre-clinical disease state using screening data. - Am. J. Epidemiol., Vol. 118, No. 6, pp. 865-886. 
  42. Walter S.D., Kubik A., Parkin D.M., Reissigova J., Adamec M. and Khlat M. (1992): The natural history of lung cancer estimated from the results of a randomized trial of screening. - Cancer Causes Contr., Vol. 3, No. 2, pp. 115-123. 
  43. Wei Q., Cheng L., Amos C.I., Wang L.E., Guo Z., Hong W.K. and Spitz M.R. (2000): Repair of tobacco carcinogen-induced DNA adducts and lung cancer risk: A molecular epidemiologic study. - J. Natl. Cancer Inst., Vol. 92, No. 21, pp. 1764-1772. 
  44. Werth J. (2002): Mammographic screening: No reliable supporting evidence? - Lancet, Vol. 360, No. 9334, pp. 720-721 (discussion). 
  45. Wu X., Gu J., Amos C.I., Jiang H., Hong W.K. and Spitz M.R. (1998): A parallel study of in vitro sensitivity to benzo[a]pyrene diol epoxide and bleomycin in lung carcinoma cases and controls. - Cancer, Vol. 83, No. 6, pp. 1118-1127. 
  46. Yamaguchi N., Tamura Y., Sobue T., Akiba S., Ohtaki M., Baba Y., Mizuno S.and Watanabe S. (1991): Evaluation of cancer prevention strategies by computerized simulation model: An approach to lung cancer. - Cancer Causes Contr., Vol. 2, No. 3, pp. 147-155. 
  47. Yamaguchi N., Tamura Y., Sobue T., Akiba S., Ohtaki M., Baba Y., Mizuno S.and Watanabe S. (1994): Evaluation of cancer prevention strategies by computerized simulation model: Methodological issues. - Environ Health Perspect., Vol. 102, Suppl. 8, pp. 67-71. 
  48. Yankelevitz D.F., Gupta R., Zhao B. and Henschke C.I. (1999): Small pulmonary nodules: Evaluation with repeat CT-preliminary experience. - Radiology, Vol. 212, No. 2, pp. 561-566. 
  49. Yankelevitz D.F., Reeves A.P., Kostis W.J., Zhao B. and Henschke C.I. (2000): Small pulmonary nodules: Volumetrically determined growth rates based on CT evaluation. - Radiology, Vol. 217, No. 1, pp. 251-256. 
  50. Yankelevitz D.F., Kostis W.J., Henschke C.I., Heelan R.T., Libby D.M., Pasmantier M.W. and Smith J.P. (2003): Overdiagnosis in chest radiographic screening for lung carcinoma: Frequency. - Cancer, Vol. 97, No. 5, pp. 1271-1275. 

NotesEmbed ?

top

You must be logged in to post comments.