# Discontinuity, decision and conflict.

Trabajos de Estadística e Investigación Operativa (1980)

- Volume: 31, Issue: 1, page 99-127
- ISSN: 0041-0241

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topHarrison, P. J., and Smith, Jim Q.. "Discontinuity, decision and conflict.." Trabajos de Estadística e Investigación Operativa 31.1 (1980): 99-127. <http://eudml.org/doc/40814>.

@article{Harrison1980,

abstract = {The motivation for this paper arises out of the authors experiences in modelling real decision makers where the decisions show not only a continuous response to a continuously changing environment but also sudden or discontinuous changes. The theoretical basis involves a parametric characterisation of the environment, a decision makers perception of it in terms of a twice differentiable Distribution Function and a bounded Loss Function. Under a specified minimizing dynamic, the resultant Expected Loss Function satisfies the conditions for a potential function and Thoms Catastrophe Classification Theorem may be used to assess the singularity points and the thresholds at which jump decisions are taken. The paper describes the theory, summarises some results on unimodal distributions illustrated by jump decisions and population polarisation. Mixture distributions are then examined and the E* models defined. These are then briefly illustrated by reference to models which have been constructed in relation to Prison Riots, Agricultural and Economic modelling.},

author = {Harrison, P. J., Smith, Jim Q.},

journal = {Trabajos de Estadística e Investigación Operativa},

keywords = {Teoría de catástrofes; Función de pérdida; Teoría de la decisión; Discontinuidad; catastrophe theory; conflict models; conjugate loss functions; mixtures of normals; prison disturbances; polarisation; Smith theorem; step loss functions; sequential information; multimodal distributions; changing environment; bounded loss; minimized expected loss},

language = {eng},

number = {1},

pages = {99-127},

title = {Discontinuity, decision and conflict.},

url = {http://eudml.org/doc/40814},

volume = {31},

year = {1980},

}

TY - JOUR

AU - Harrison, P. J.

AU - Smith, Jim Q.

TI - Discontinuity, decision and conflict.

JO - Trabajos de Estadística e Investigación Operativa

PY - 1980

VL - 31

IS - 1

SP - 99

EP - 127

AB - The motivation for this paper arises out of the authors experiences in modelling real decision makers where the decisions show not only a continuous response to a continuously changing environment but also sudden or discontinuous changes. The theoretical basis involves a parametric characterisation of the environment, a decision makers perception of it in terms of a twice differentiable Distribution Function and a bounded Loss Function. Under a specified minimizing dynamic, the resultant Expected Loss Function satisfies the conditions for a potential function and Thoms Catastrophe Classification Theorem may be used to assess the singularity points and the thresholds at which jump decisions are taken. The paper describes the theory, summarises some results on unimodal distributions illustrated by jump decisions and population polarisation. Mixture distributions are then examined and the E* models defined. These are then briefly illustrated by reference to models which have been constructed in relation to Prison Riots, Agricultural and Economic modelling.

LA - eng

KW - Teoría de catástrofes; Función de pérdida; Teoría de la decisión; Discontinuidad; catastrophe theory; conflict models; conjugate loss functions; mixtures of normals; prison disturbances; polarisation; Smith theorem; step loss functions; sequential information; multimodal distributions; changing environment; bounded loss; minimized expected loss

UR - http://eudml.org/doc/40814

ER -

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