# Beliefs about beliefs, a theory for stochastic assessment of subjective probabilities.

Trabajos de Estadística e Investigación Operativa (1980)

- Volume: 31, Issue: 1, page 471-487
- ISSN: 0041-0241

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topDickey, James M.. "Beliefs about beliefs, a theory for stochastic assessment of subjective probabilities.." Trabajos de Estadística e Investigación Operativa 31.1 (1980): 471-487. <http://eudml.org/doc/40842>.

@article{Dickey1980,

abstract = {Parameterized families of subjective probability distributions can be used to great advantage to model beliefs of experts, especially when such models include dependence on concomitant variables. In one such model, probabilities of simple events can be expressed in loglinear form. In another, a generalization of the multivariate t distribution has concomitant variables entering linearly through the location vector. Interactive interview methods for assessing this second model and matrix extensions thereof were given in recent joint work of the author with A. P. Dawid, J. B. Kadane and others. In any such verbal assessment method, elicited quantiles must be fitted by subjective probability models. The fitting requires the use of a further probability method for errors of elicitation. This paper gives new theory relating the form of the distribution of elicited probabilities and elicited quantiles to the form of the subjective probability distribution. The first and the second order moment structures are developed to permit generalized least squares fits.},

author = {Dickey, James M.},

journal = {Trabajos de Estadística e Investigación Operativa},

keywords = {Probabilidad subjetiva; Modelos estadísticos},

language = {eng},

number = {1},

pages = {471-487},

title = {Beliefs about beliefs, a theory for stochastic assessment of subjective probabilities.},

url = {http://eudml.org/doc/40842},

volume = {31},

year = {1980},

}

TY - JOUR

AU - Dickey, James M.

TI - Beliefs about beliefs, a theory for stochastic assessment of subjective probabilities.

JO - Trabajos de Estadística e Investigación Operativa

PY - 1980

VL - 31

IS - 1

SP - 471

EP - 487

AB - Parameterized families of subjective probability distributions can be used to great advantage to model beliefs of experts, especially when such models include dependence on concomitant variables. In one such model, probabilities of simple events can be expressed in loglinear form. In another, a generalization of the multivariate t distribution has concomitant variables entering linearly through the location vector. Interactive interview methods for assessing this second model and matrix extensions thereof were given in recent joint work of the author with A. P. Dawid, J. B. Kadane and others. In any such verbal assessment method, elicited quantiles must be fitted by subjective probability models. The fitting requires the use of a further probability method for errors of elicitation. This paper gives new theory relating the form of the distribution of elicited probabilities and elicited quantiles to the form of the subjective probability distribution. The first and the second order moment structures are developed to permit generalized least squares fits.

LA - eng

KW - Probabilidad subjetiva; Modelos estadísticos

UR - http://eudml.org/doc/40842

ER -

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