Le traitement de l'incertitude dans les perspectives démographiques.
Often the predicted trends are extrapolations of trends observed before the projection's initial date, while reality may present an unexpected return of past trends or irregularities. Uncertainty being related to the impossibility to accurately predict the future, errors in the predictions are the manifestations of such uncertainty and come from the lack of accuracy which affects the extrapolation of the components of demographic change. The lack of accuracy increases as the date of the beginning...