Estimation of the transition density of a Markov chain
We present two data-driven procedures to estimate the transition density of an homogeneous Markov chain. The first yields a piecewise constant estimator on a suitable random partition. By using an Hellinger-type loss, we establish non-asymptotic risk bounds for our estimator when the square root of the transition density belongs to possibly inhomogeneous Besov spaces with possibly small regularity index. Some simulations are also provided. The second procedure is of theoretical interest and leads...