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We prove that every set A ⊂ ℤ satisfying ${\sum }_{x}min(1_A*1_A\left(x\right),t)\le (2+\delta )t\left|A\right|$ for t and δ in suitable ranges must be very close to an arithmetic progression. We use this result to improve the estimates of Green and Morris for the probability that a random subset A ⊂ ℕ satisfies |ℕ∖(A+A)| ≥ k; specifically, we show that $\mathbb{P}\left(\right|\mathbb{N}\setminus (A+A)\left|\ge k\right)=\Theta \left(2^{-k/2}\right)$.