Epidemiology of Dengue Fever: A Model with Temporary Cross-Immunity and Possible Secondary Infection Shows Bifurcations and Chaotic Behaviour in Wide Parameter Regions
Maíra Aguiar, Bob Kooi, Nico Stollenwerk (2008)
Mathematical Modelling of Natural Phenomena
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Basic models suitable to explain the epidemiology of dengue fever have previously shown the possibility of deterministically chaotic attractors, which might explain the observed fluctuations found in empiric outbreak data. However, the region of bifurcations and chaos require strong enhanced infectivity on secondary infection, motivated by experimental findings of antibody-dependent-enhancement. Including temporary cross-immunity in such models, which is common knowledge among field...