Displaying similar documents to “Comparison of Sojourn Time Distributions in Modeling HIV/AIDS Disease Progression”

Survival probabilities for HIV infected patients through semi-Markov processes

Giovanni Masala, Giuseppina Cannas, Marco Micocci (2014)

Biometrical Letters

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In this paper we apply a parametric semi-Markov process to model the dynamic evolution of HIV-1 infected patients. The seriousness of the infection is rendered by the CD4+ T-lymphocyte counts. For this purpose we introduce the main features of nonhomogeneous semi-Markov models. After determining the transition probabilities and the waiting time distributions in each state of the disease, we solve the evolution equations of the process in order to estimate the interval transition probabilities....

Single-use reliability computation of a semi-Markovian system

Guglielmo D'Amico (2014)

Applications of Mathematics

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Markov chain usage models were successfully used to model systems and software. The most prominent approaches are the so-called failure state models Whittaker and Thomason (1994) and the arc-based Bayesian models Sayre and Poore (2000). In this paper we propose arc-based semi-Markov usage models to test systems. We extend previous studies that rely on the Markov chain assumption to the more general semi-Markovian setting. Among the obtained results we give a closed form representation...

Knowledge revision in Markov networks.

Jörg Gebhardt, Christian Borgelt, Rudolf Kruse, Heinz Detmer (2004)

Mathware and Soft Computing

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A lot of research in graphical models has been devoted to developing correct and efficient evidence propagation methods, like join tree propagation or bucket elimination. With these methods it is possible to condition the represented probability distribution on given evidence, a reasoning process that is sometimes also called focusing. In practice, however, there is the additional need to revise the represented probability distribution in order to reflect some knowledge changes by satisfying...

Central limit theorem for hitting times of functionals of Markov jump processes

Christian Paroissin, Bernard Ycart (2004)

ESAIM: Probability and Statistics

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A sample of i.i.d. continuous time Markov chains being defined, the sum over each component of a real function of the state is considered. For this functional, a central limit theorem for the first hitting time of a prescribed level is proved. The result extends the classical central limit theorem for order statistics. Various reliability models are presented as examples of applications.

A method for knowledge integration

Martin Janžura, Pavel Boček (1998)

Kybernetika

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With the aid of Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods we can sample even from complex multi-dimensional distributions which cannot be exactly calculated. Thus, an application to the problem of knowledge integration (e. g. in expert systems) is straightforward.

On convergence in distribution of the Markov chain generated by the filter kernel induced by a fully dominated Hidden Markov Model

Thomas Kaijser

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Consider a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) such that both the state space and the observation space are complete, separable, metric spaces and for which both the transition probability function (tr.pr.f.) determining the hidden Markov chain of the HMM and the tr.pr.f. determining the observation sequence of the HMM have densities. Such HMMs are called fully dominated. In this paper we consider a subclass of fully dominated HMMs which we call regular. A fully dominated,...