Influenza Transmission in Preschools: Modulation by contact landscapes and interventions

A.A. Adalja; P.S. Crooke; J.R. Hotchkiss

Mathematical Modelling of Natural Phenomena (2010)

  • Volume: 5, Issue: 3, page 3-14
  • ISSN: 0973-5348

Abstract

top
Epidemiologic data suggest that schools and daycare facilities likely play a major role in the dissemination of influenza. Pathogen transmission within such small, inhomogenously mixed populations is difficult to model using traditional approaches. We developed simulation based mathematical tool to investigate the effects of social contact networks on pathogen dissemination in a setting analogous to a daycare center or grade school. Here we show that interventions that decrease mixing within child care facilities, including limiting the size of social clusters, reducing the contact frequency between social clusters, and eliminating large gatherings, could diminish pathogen dissemination. Moreover, these measures may amplify the effectiveness of vaccination or antiviral prophylaxis, even if the vaccine is not uniformly effective or antiviral compliance is incomplete. Similar considerations should apply to other small, imperfectly mixed populations, such as offices and schools.

How to cite

top

Adalja, A.A., Crooke, P.S., and Hotchkiss, J.R.. "Influenza Transmission in Preschools: Modulation by contact landscapes and interventions." Mathematical Modelling of Natural Phenomena 5.3 (2010): 3-14. <http://eudml.org/doc/197627>.

@article{Adalja2010,
abstract = {Epidemiologic data suggest that schools and daycare facilities likely play a major role in the dissemination of influenza. Pathogen transmission within such small, inhomogenously mixed populations is difficult to model using traditional approaches. We developed simulation based mathematical tool to investigate the effects of social contact networks on pathogen dissemination in a setting analogous to a daycare center or grade school. Here we show that interventions that decrease mixing within child care facilities, including limiting the size of social clusters, reducing the contact frequency between social clusters, and eliminating large gatherings, could diminish pathogen dissemination. Moreover, these measures may amplify the effectiveness of vaccination or antiviral prophylaxis, even if the vaccine is not uniformly effective or antiviral compliance is incomplete. Similar considerations should apply to other small, imperfectly mixed populations, such as offices and schools.},
author = {Adalja, A.A., Crooke, P.S., Hotchkiss, J.R.},
journal = {Mathematical Modelling of Natural Phenomena},
keywords = {influenza; Monte Carlo model; preschool; landscape ruggedness},
language = {eng},
month = {4},
number = {3},
pages = {3-14},
publisher = {EDP Sciences},
title = {Influenza Transmission in Preschools: Modulation by contact landscapes and interventions},
url = {http://eudml.org/doc/197627},
volume = {5},
year = {2010},
}

TY - JOUR
AU - Adalja, A.A.
AU - Crooke, P.S.
AU - Hotchkiss, J.R.
TI - Influenza Transmission in Preschools: Modulation by contact landscapes and interventions
JO - Mathematical Modelling of Natural Phenomena
DA - 2010/4//
PB - EDP Sciences
VL - 5
IS - 3
SP - 3
EP - 14
AB - Epidemiologic data suggest that schools and daycare facilities likely play a major role in the dissemination of influenza. Pathogen transmission within such small, inhomogenously mixed populations is difficult to model using traditional approaches. We developed simulation based mathematical tool to investigate the effects of social contact networks on pathogen dissemination in a setting analogous to a daycare center or grade school. Here we show that interventions that decrease mixing within child care facilities, including limiting the size of social clusters, reducing the contact frequency between social clusters, and eliminating large gatherings, could diminish pathogen dissemination. Moreover, these measures may amplify the effectiveness of vaccination or antiviral prophylaxis, even if the vaccine is not uniformly effective or antiviral compliance is incomplete. Similar considerations should apply to other small, imperfectly mixed populations, such as offices and schools.
LA - eng
KW - influenza; Monte Carlo model; preschool; landscape ruggedness
UR - http://eudml.org/doc/197627
ER -

References

top
  1. L.J. Radonovich, B.S. Bender. Children Should Be Among the Highest Priority Groups to Receive Immunization for Seasonal and Pandemic Influenza. Biosecurity and Bioterrorism: Biodefense Strategy, Practice, and Science, 5 (2007), No. 4, 363-366.  
  2. K.M. Neuzil, Y. Zhu, M.R. Griffin, K.M. Edwards, J.M. Thompson, S.J. Tollefson, P.F. Writght. Burden of interpandemic influenza in children younger than 5 years: A 25-year prospective study. J. Infect. Dis., 185 (2002), No. 2, 147–152. 
  3. I.M. Longini, A. Nizam, S.F. Xu, K. Ungchusak, W. Hanshaoworakul, D.A.T. Cummings, M.E. Halloran. Containing pandemic influenza at the source. Science, 309 (2005), 1083–1087. 
  4. N.M. Ferguson, D.A.T. Cummings, S. Cauchemez, C. Fraser, S. Riley, A. Meeyai, S. Iamsirithaworn, D.S. Burke. Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia. Nature, 437 (2005), No. 7056, 209–214. 
  5. T.C. Germann, K. Kadau, I.M. Longini, C.A. Macken. Mitigation strategies for pandemic influenza in the United States. Proc Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 103 (2006), No. 15, 5935–5940. 
  6. N.M. Ferguson, D.A.T. Cummings, C. Fraser, J.C. Cajka, P.C. Cooley, D.S. Burke. Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic. Nature, 442 (2006), No. 7101, 448–452. 
  7. M.E. Halloran, N.M. Ferguson, S. Eubank, I.M. Longini, D.A.T. Cummings, B. Lewis, S.F. Xu, C. Fraser, A. Vullikanti, T.C. Germann, D. Wagner, R. Beckman, K. Kadau, C. Barrett, C.A. Macken, D.S. Burke, P.C. Cooley. Modeling targeted layered containment of an influenza pandemic in the United States. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 105 (2008), No. 12, 4639–4644. 
  8. L. Ancel Meyers, M.E. Newman, M. Martin, S. Schrag. Applying network theory to epidemics: control measures for Mycoplasma pneumoniae outbreaks. Emerg. Infect. Dis., 9 (2003), No. 2, 204–210. 
  9. S. Bansal, B.T. Grenfell, L.A. Meyers. When individual behaviour matters: homogeneous and network models in epidemiology. JR. Soc. Interface, 4 (2007) No. 16, 879–891.  
  10. J.R. Hotchkiss, D.G. Strike, D.A. Simonson, A.F. Broccard, P.S. Crooke. An agent-based and spatially explicit model of pathogen dissemination in the intensive care unit. Crit. Care. Med., 33 (2005), No. 1, 168–176. 
  11. W.G. Wilson. Resolving discrepancies between deterministic population models and individual-based simulations. Am. Nat., 151 (1998), No. 2, 116-134. 
  12. M.E. Halloran, F.G. Hayden, Y. Yang, I.M. Longini, A.S. Monto. Antiviral effects on influenza viral transmission and pathogenicity: observations from household-based trials. Am. J. Epidemiol., 165 (2007), No. 2, 212–221. 
  13. F.G. Hayden, R.L. Atmar, M. Schilling, C. Johnson, D. Poretz, D. Paar, L. Huson, P. Ward, R.G. Mills. Use of the selective oral neuraminidase inhibitor oseltamivir to prevent influenza. N. Engl. J. Med., 341 (1999), No. 18, 1336–1343. 
  14. F.G. Hayden, J.J. Treanor, R.S. Fritz, M. Lobo, R.F. Miller, N. Kinnersley, R.G. Mills, P. Ward, S.E. Straus. Use of the oral neuraminidase inhibitor oseltamivir in experimental human influenza: randomized controlled trials for prevention and treatment. J. Am. Med. Assoc., 282 (1999), No. 13, 1240–1246. 
  15. D. Weycker, J. Edelsbeg, M.E. Halloran, I.M. Longini, A. Nizam, V. Ciuyla, G. Oster. Population-wide benefits of routine vaccination of children against influenza. Vaccine, 23 (2005), No. 10, 1284–1293. 
  16. M.M. Wagner, L.S. Gresham, V. Dato. Case. Detection, Outbreak Detection and Outbreak Characterization. M.M. Wagner, A.W. Moore and R.M. Aryel(Eds) In Handbook of Biosurveillance, Elsevier, Burlington, 2006, 27–51.  
  17. J. Stein, J. Louie, S. Flanders, J. Maselli, J. Hacker, W.L. Drew, R. Gonzales. Performance characteristics of clinical diagnosis, a clinical decision rule, and a rapid influenza test in the detection of influenza infection in a community sample of adults. Ann. Emerg. Med., 46 (2005), 412-419. 
  18. J.R. Hotchkiss, P. Holley, P.S. Crooke. Analyzing Pathogen Transmission in the Dialysis Unit: Time for a (Schedule) Change?Clin. J. Am. Soc. Nephrol., 2 (2007), No. 6, 1176–1185.  
  19. I.M. Longini, M.E. Halloran, A. Nizam, M. Wolff, P.M. Mendelman, P.E. Fast, R.B. Belshe. Estimation of the efficacy of live, attenuated influenza vaccine from a two-year, multi-center vaccine trial: implications for influenza epidemic control. Vaccine, 18 (2000), No. 18, 1902–1909. 
  20. H. Markel, H.B. Lipman, J.A. Navarro, J.A. Navarro, A. Sloan, J. Michalsen, A.M. Stern, M.S. Cetron. Nonpharmaceutical interventions implemented by US cities during the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic. J. Am. Med. Assoc., 298 (2007), No. 6, 644–654. 

NotesEmbed ?

top

You must be logged in to post comments.

To embed these notes on your page include the following JavaScript code on your page where you want the notes to appear.

Only the controls for the widget will be shown in your chosen language. Notes will be shown in their authored language.

Tells the widget how many notes to show per page. You can cycle through additional notes using the next and previous controls.

    
                

                
Note: Best practice suggests putting the JavaScript code just before the closing </body> tag.