Pre-symptomatic Influenza Transmission, Surveillance, and School Closings: Implications for Novel Influenza A (H1N1)

G. F. Webb; Y-H. Hsieh; J. Wu; M. J. Blaser

Mathematical Modelling of Natural Phenomena (2010)

  • Volume: 5, Issue: 3, page 191-205
  • ISSN: 0973-5348

Abstract

top
Early studies of the novel swine-origin 2009 influenza A (H1N1) epidemic indicate clinical attack rates in children much higher than in adults. Non-medical interventions such as school closings are constrained by their large socio-economic costs. Here we develop a mathematical model to ascertain the roles of pre-symptomatic influenza transmission as well as symptoms surveillance of children to assess the utility of school closures. Our model analysis indicates that school closings are advisable when pre-symptomatic transmission is significant or when removal of symptomatic children is inefficient. Our objective is to provide a rational basis for school closings decisions dependent on virulence characteristics and local surveillance implementation, applicable to the current epidemic and future epidemics.

How to cite

top

Webb, G. F., et al. "Pre-symptomatic Influenza Transmission, Surveillance, and School Closings: Implications for Novel Influenza A (H1N1)." Mathematical Modelling of Natural Phenomena 5.3 (2010): 191-205. <http://eudml.org/doc/197687>.

@article{Webb2010,
abstract = {Early studies of the novel swine-origin 2009 influenza A (H1N1) epidemic indicate clinical attack rates in children much higher than in adults. Non-medical interventions such as school closings are constrained by their large socio-economic costs. Here we develop a mathematical model to ascertain the roles of pre-symptomatic influenza transmission as well as symptoms surveillance of children to assess the utility of school closures. Our model analysis indicates that school closings are advisable when pre-symptomatic transmission is significant or when removal of symptomatic children is inefficient. Our objective is to provide a rational basis for school closings decisions dependent on virulence characteristics and local surveillance implementation, applicable to the current epidemic and future epidemics.},
author = {Webb, G. F., Hsieh, Y-H., Wu, J., Blaser, M. J.},
journal = {Mathematical Modelling of Natural Phenomena},
keywords = {influenza; symptoms surveillance; pre-symptomatic; age of infection model; school closing policy},
language = {eng},
month = {4},
number = {3},
pages = {191-205},
publisher = {EDP Sciences},
title = {Pre-symptomatic Influenza Transmission, Surveillance, and School Closings: Implications for Novel Influenza A (H1N1)},
url = {http://eudml.org/doc/197687},
volume = {5},
year = {2010},
}

TY - JOUR
AU - Webb, G. F.
AU - Hsieh, Y-H.
AU - Wu, J.
AU - Blaser, M. J.
TI - Pre-symptomatic Influenza Transmission, Surveillance, and School Closings: Implications for Novel Influenza A (H1N1)
JO - Mathematical Modelling of Natural Phenomena
DA - 2010/4//
PB - EDP Sciences
VL - 5
IS - 3
SP - 191
EP - 205
AB - Early studies of the novel swine-origin 2009 influenza A (H1N1) epidemic indicate clinical attack rates in children much higher than in adults. Non-medical interventions such as school closings are constrained by their large socio-economic costs. Here we develop a mathematical model to ascertain the roles of pre-symptomatic influenza transmission as well as symptoms surveillance of children to assess the utility of school closures. Our model analysis indicates that school closings are advisable when pre-symptomatic transmission is significant or when removal of symptomatic children is inefficient. Our objective is to provide a rational basis for school closings decisions dependent on virulence characteristics and local surveillance implementation, applicable to the current epidemic and future epidemics.
LA - eng
KW - influenza; symptoms surveillance; pre-symptomatic; age of infection model; school closing policy
UR - http://eudml.org/doc/197687
ER -

References

top
  1. J. Arino, F. Brauer, P. van den Driessche, J. Watmough J. Wu. Simple models for containment of a pandemic. J. R. Soc. Interface, 3 (2006), 453–457. 
  2. D.M. Bell. World Health Organization Writing Group. Nonpharmaceutical interventions for pandemic influenza, international measures. Emerg. Infect. Dis., 14 (2008), No. 7, 1024–1030. 
  3. F. Brauer. Age of infection in epidemiology models. Elect. J. Dif. Eqs., 12 (2005), 29–37. 
  4. S. Cauchemez, A.J. Valleron, P.Y. Boelle, A. Flahault N.M. Ferguson. Estimating the impact of school closure on influenza transmission from sentinel data. Nature, 452 (2008), 750–754. 
  5. F. Carrat, E. Vergu, N.M. Feguson, M. Lemaitre, S. Cauchemez, S. Leach A-J. Valleron. Time Lines of Infection and Disease in Human Influenza: A Review of Volunteer Challenge Studies. Am. J. Epid., 167 (2008), No. 7, 775–785. 
  6. G. Chowell, C.E. Ammon, N.W. Hengartner J.M. Hyman. Estimation of the Reproductive number of the Spanish Flu Epidemic in Geneva, Switzerland. Vaccine, 24 (2006), 6747–6750. 
  7. B.J. Cowling, E.H.Y. Lau, C.L.H. Lam, C.K.Y. Cheng, J. Kovar, K.H. Chan, J.S. Malik Peiris, G.M. Leung. Effects of school closures, 2008 winter influenza season, Hong Kong. Emerg. Infect. Dis., 11 (2006), No. 1, 81–87.  
  8. J. Dushoff, J.B. Plotkin, S. Levin D.J.D. Earn. Dynamical resonance can account for seasonality of influenza epidemics. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 101 (2004), No. 48, 16915–16916. 
  9. A. Flahault, S. Letrait, P. Blin, S. Hazout, J. Menares A.J. Valleron. Modeling the 1985 influenza epidemic in France. Stat. Med., 7 (1988), 1147–1155. 
  10. Z. Feng, W. Huang C. Castillo-Chavez. Global behavior of a multi-group SIS epidemic model with age structure. J. Dif. Eq., 218 (2005), 292–324. 
  11. A. Flahault, S. Letrait, P. Blin, S. Hazout, J. Menares A.J. Valleron. Modeling the 1985 influenza epidemic in France. Stat. Med., 7 (1988), 1147–1155. 
  12. A.L. Frank, L.H. Taber, C.R. Wells, J.M. Wells, W.P. Glezen A. Paredes. Patterns of shedding of myxoviruses and paramyxoviruses in children. J. Infect. Dis., 144 (1981), 433–441. 
  13. C. Fraser, S. Riley, R.M. Anderson N.M. Ferguson. Factors that make an infectious disease outbreak controllable, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 101 (2004), No. 16, 6146–6151. 
  14. C. Fraser, C.A. Donnelly, S. Cauchemez, W.P. Hanage, M.D. VanKerkhove, T.D. Hollingsworth, J. Griffin, R.F. Baggaley, H.E. Jenkins, E.J. Lyons, T. Jombart, W.R. Hinsley, N.C. Grassly, F. Balloux, A.C. Ghani, N.M. Ferguson, A. Rambaut, O.G. Pybus, H. Lopez-Gatell, C.M Alpuche-Aranda, L.B. Chapela, E.P. Zavala, D.M. Espejo Guevara, F. Checchi, E. Garcia, S. Hugonnet, C. Roth. Pandemic Potential of a Strain of Influenza A (H1N1): Early Findings. Science, published online May 11, 2009.  
  15. R. Gani, H. Hughes, D. Fleming, T. Griffin, J. Medlock S. Leach. Potential impact of antiviral drug use during influenza pandemic. Emerg. Infect. Dis., 11 (2005), 1355–1362. 
  16. T.C. Germann, K. Kadau, I.M. Longini C.A. Macken. Mitigation strategies for pandemic influenza in the United States. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 103 (2006), 5935–5940. 
  17. J.M. Graat, E.G. Schouten, M.-L.A. Heijnen, F..J. Kok, E.G.M. Pallast, S.C. deGreeff J.W. Dorigo-Zetsma. A prospective, community-based study on virologic assessment among elderly people with and without symptoms of acute respiratory infection. J. Clin. Epidemiol., 56 (2003), No. 12, 1218–1223. 
  18. C.B. Hall, R.G. Douglas, Jr., J.M. Geiman M.P Meagher. Viral shedding patterns of children with influenza B infection. J. Infect. Dis., 140 (1979), 610–613. 
  19. F.G. Hayden, R.Scott. Fritz, M.C. Lobo, W.G. Alvord, W. Strober S.E. Straus. Local and systemic cytokine responses during experimental human influenza A virus infection. Relation to symptom formation and host defense. J. Clin. Invest., 101 (1998), 643–649. 
  20. H.W. Hethcote. A thousand and one epidemic models. Frontiers in Mathematical Biology, Lecture Notes in Biomathematics 100, S.A. Levin, ed., Springer-Verlag (1994), 504–515.  
  21. L.M. Howe. Could the new swine virus be a Òherald waveÓ? Earthfiles.com Environment, published online. Accessed June 1, 2009.  
  22. S.B. Hsu Y.H. Hsieh. On the Role of Asymptomatic Infection in Transmission Dynamics of Infectious Diseases. Bull. Math. Biol., 70 (2008), 134–155. 
  23. H. Inaba. H. Nishiura. The basic reproduction number of an infectious disease in a stable population: The impact of population growth rate on the eradication threshold. Math. Model. Nat. Phen., 3 (2008), No. 7, 194–228. 
  24. H. Inaba. H. Nishiura. The state-reproduction number for a multistate class age structured epidemic system and its application to the asymptomatic transmission model. Math. Biosci., 216 (2008), 77–89. 
  25. A.J. Johnson, Z.S. Moore, P.J. Edelson, L. Kinnane, M. Davies, D.K. Shay, A. Balish, M. McCarron, L. Blanton, L. Finelli, F. Averhoff, J. Bresee, J. Engel A. Fiore. Household responses to school closure resulting from outbreak of influenza B, North Carolina. BNET: Health Care Industry. Emerg. Infect. Dis., 14 (2008), No. 7, 1024–1030. 
  26. W.O. Kermack A.G. McKendrick. A contribution to the mathematical theory of epidemics. Proc. Roy. Soc. London, 115 (1927), 700–721. 
  27. J. Lessler, D.A. Cummings, S. Fishman, A. Vora D.S. Burke. Transmissibility of swine flu at Fort Dix, 1976. J. Roy. Soc. Interface, 4 (2007), No. 15, 55–762. 
  28. I.M. Longini, M.E. Halloran, A. Nizam Y Yang. Containing pandemic influenza with antiviral agents. Am. J. Epidemiol., 159 (2004), 623–633. 
  29. I.M. Longini, Jr., A. Nizam, S. Xu, K. Ungschusak, W. Hanshaoworakul, D.A.T. Cummings M.E. Halloran. Containing pandemic influenza at the source. Science, 309 (2005), 1083–1087. 
  30. J.T. Macfarlane W.S. Lim. Bird flu and pandemic flu. British Medical Journal., 331 (2005), 975–976. 
  31. C.E. Mills, J.M. Robins, M. Lipsitch. Transmissibility of 1918 pandemic influenza. Nature432, (2004), 904–906.  
  32. G.J. Milne, J.K. Kelso, H.A. Kelly, S.T. Huband, J. McVernon. A small community model for the transmission of infectious diseases: comparison of school closure as an intervention in individual-based models of an influenza pandemic. PLoSONE, 3 (2008) No. 12, e4005.  
  33. S.M. Mniszewski, S.Y. Del Valle, P.D. Stroud, J.M. Riese S.J. Sydoriak. Pandemic simulation of antivirals + school closures: buying time until strain-specific vaccine is available. Comp. & Math. Organ. Theory14 (2008), No. 3, 209–221. 
  34. A.S. Monto, R.A. Gunn, M.G. Bandyk C.L. King. Prevention of Russian influenza by amantadine. JAMA, 241 (1979), 1003–1007. 
  35. I. Nafta I, A.G. Turcanu, I. Braun, W. Companetz, A. Simionescu, E. Birt V. Florea. Administration of amantadine for the prevention of Hong Kong influenza. Bull. World Health Organ., 42 (1970), 423–427. 
  36. W. Ndifon, J. Dushoff S.A. Levin. On the use of hemagglutination-inhibition for influenza surveillance: Surveillance data are predictive of influenza vaccine effectiveness. Vaccine, 27 (2009), No. 18, 2447–2452. 
  37. H. Nishiura, C. Castillo-Chavez, M. Safan, G. Chowell. Transmission potential of the new influenza A(H1N1) virus and its age-specificity in Japan. Eurosurveillance, 14 (2009), No. 22, Rapid Communications.  
  38. N. Oker-Blom, T. Hovi, P. Leinikki, T. Palosuo, R. Pettersson J. Suni. Protection of man from natural infection with influenza A2 Hong Kong virus by amantadine: a controlled field trial. Brit. Med. J., 3 (1970), 676–678. 
  39. R.F. Pettersson, P.-E. Hellstrom, K. Penttinen, R. Pyhala, O. Tokola, T. Vartio, R. Visakorpi. Evaluation of amantadine in the prophylaxis of influenza A (H1N1) virus infection: a controlled field trial among young adults and high-risk patients. J. Infect. Dis., 142 (1980), 377–383.  
  40. J.M. Quarles, R.B. Couch, T.R. Cate C.B. Goswick. Comparison of amantadine and rimantadine for prevention of type A (Russian) influenza. Antiviral Res., 1 (1981), 149–155. 
  41. M.Z. Sadique, E.J. Adams W.J. Edmunds. Estimating the costs of school closure for mitigating an influenza pandemic. BMC Public Health, 8 (2008), 135. 
  42. N. Senpinar-Brunner, T. Eckert K. Wyss. Acceptance of public health measures by air travelers, Switzerland. Emerg. Infect. Dis.15 (2009), No. 5, 831–832. 
  43. K. Sheat. An investigation into an explosive outbreak of influenza-New Plymouth. Communicable Disease New Zealand, 92 (1992), 18–19.  
  44. M. Sato, M. Hosoya, K. Kato H. Suzuki. Viral shedding in children with influenza virus infections treated with neuraminidase inhibitors. Pediatr. Infect. Dis. J., 24 (2005), 931–932. 
  45. N.I. Stilianakis, A.S. Perelson F.G. Hayden. Emergence of drug resistance during an influenza epidemic: insights from a mathematical model. J. Infect. Dis., 177 (1998), No. 4, 863–873. 
  46. World Health Organization. Nonpharmaceutical Interventions for Pandemic Influenza, International Measures. Emerg. Infect. Dis. 12 (2006), No 1, 81–87.  
  47. G.F. Webb. An age-dependent epidemic model with spatial diffusion. Arch. Rat. Mech., 75 (1980), 91–102. 

NotesEmbed ?

top

You must be logged in to post comments.

To embed these notes on your page include the following JavaScript code on your page where you want the notes to appear.

Only the controls for the widget will be shown in your chosen language. Notes will be shown in their authored language.

Tells the widget how many notes to show per page. You can cycle through additional notes using the next and previous controls.

    
                

                
Note: Best practice suggests putting the JavaScript code just before the closing </body> tag.