In this paper we present an epidemic model affecting an age-structured population. We show by numerical simulations that this demographic structure can induce persistent oscillations in the epidemic. The model is then extended to encompass a stage-structured disease within an age-dependent population. In this case as well, persistent oscillations are observed in the infected as well as in the whole population.
A decision analytical model is presented and analysed to assess the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of routine vaccination against varicella and herpes-zoster, or shingles. These diseases have as common aetiological agent the varicella-zoster virus (VZV). Zoster can more likely occur in aged people with declining cell-mediated immunity. The general concern is that universal varicella vaccination might lead to more cases of zoster: with more...
We consider an ecosystem in which spiders may be transported by the wind from vineyards into the surrounding woods and vice versa. The model takes into account this tranport phenomenon without building space explicitly into the governing equations. The equilibria of the dynamical system are analyzed together with their stability, showing that bifurcations may occur. Then the effects of indiscriminated spraying to keep pests under control is also investigated via suitable simulations.
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