A Cost-Effectiveness-Assessing Model of Vaccination for Varicella and Zoster

M. Comba; S. Martorano-Raimundo; E. Venturino

Mathematical Modelling of Natural Phenomena (2012)

  • Volume: 7, Issue: 3, page 62-77
  • ISSN: 0973-5348

Abstract

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A decision analytical model is presented and analysed to assess the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of routine vaccination against varicella and herpes-zoster, or shingles. These diseases have as common aetiological agent the varicella-zoster virus (VZV). Zoster can more likely occur in aged people with declining cell-mediated immunity. The general concern is that universal varicella vaccination might lead to more cases of zoster: with more vaccinated children exposure of the general population to varicella infectives become smaller and thus a larger proportion of older people will have weaker immunity to VZV, leading to more cases of reactivation of zoster. Our compartment model shows that only two possible equilibria exist, one without varicella and the other one where varicella and zoster both thrive. Threshold quantities to distinguish these cases are derived. Cost estimates on a possible herd vaccination program are discussed indicating a possible tradeoff choice.

How to cite

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Comba, M., Martorano-Raimundo, S., and Venturino, E.. "A Cost-Effectiveness-Assessing Model of Vaccination for Varicella and Zoster." Mathematical Modelling of Natural Phenomena 7.3 (2012): 62-77. <http://eudml.org/doc/222352>.

@article{Comba2012,
abstract = {A decision analytical model is presented and analysed to assess the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of routine vaccination against varicella and herpes-zoster, or shingles. These diseases have as common aetiological agent the varicella-zoster virus (VZV). Zoster can more likely occur in aged people with declining cell-mediated immunity. The general concern is that universal varicella vaccination might lead to more cases of zoster: with more vaccinated children exposure of the general population to varicella infectives become smaller and thus a larger proportion of older people will have weaker immunity to VZV, leading to more cases of reactivation of zoster. Our compartment model shows that only two possible equilibria exist, one without varicella and the other one where varicella and zoster both thrive. Threshold quantities to distinguish these cases are derived. Cost estimates on a possible herd vaccination program are discussed indicating a possible tradeoff choice.},
author = {Comba, M., Martorano-Raimundo, S., Venturino, E.},
journal = {Mathematical Modelling of Natural Phenomena},
keywords = {varicella zoster virus; vaccine; cost-effectiveness; epidemics},
language = {eng},
month = {6},
number = {3},
pages = {62-77},
publisher = {EDP Sciences},
title = {A Cost-Effectiveness-Assessing Model of Vaccination for Varicella and Zoster},
url = {http://eudml.org/doc/222352},
volume = {7},
year = {2012},
}

TY - JOUR
AU - Comba, M.
AU - Martorano-Raimundo, S.
AU - Venturino, E.
TI - A Cost-Effectiveness-Assessing Model of Vaccination for Varicella and Zoster
JO - Mathematical Modelling of Natural Phenomena
DA - 2012/6//
PB - EDP Sciences
VL - 7
IS - 3
SP - 62
EP - 77
AB - A decision analytical model is presented and analysed to assess the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of routine vaccination against varicella and herpes-zoster, or shingles. These diseases have as common aetiological agent the varicella-zoster virus (VZV). Zoster can more likely occur in aged people with declining cell-mediated immunity. The general concern is that universal varicella vaccination might lead to more cases of zoster: with more vaccinated children exposure of the general population to varicella infectives become smaller and thus a larger proportion of older people will have weaker immunity to VZV, leading to more cases of reactivation of zoster. Our compartment model shows that only two possible equilibria exist, one without varicella and the other one where varicella and zoster both thrive. Threshold quantities to distinguish these cases are derived. Cost estimates on a possible herd vaccination program are discussed indicating a possible tradeoff choice.
LA - eng
KW - varicella zoster virus; vaccine; cost-effectiveness; epidemics
UR - http://eudml.org/doc/222352
ER -

References

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