Updating probabilities by information from only one hypothesis and thereby ignoring alternative hypotheses, is not only biased but leads to progressively imprecise conclusions. In psychology this phenomenon was studied in experiments with the “pseudodiagnosticity task”. In probability logic the phenomenon that additional premises increase the imprecision of a conclusion is known as “degradation”. The present contribution investigates degradation in the context of second order probability distributions....
An important field of probability logic is the investigation of inference rules that propagate point probabilities or, more generally, interval probabilities from premises to conclusions. Conditional probability logic (CPL) interprets the common sense expressions of the form “if ..., then ...” by conditional probabilities and not by the probability of the material implication. An inference rule is probabilistically informative if the coherent probability interval of its conclusion is not necessarily...
Probability logic studies the properties resulting from the probabilistic interpretation of logical argument forms. Typical examples are probabilistic Modus Ponens and Modus Tollens. Argument forms with two premises usually lead from precise probabilities of the premises to imprecise or interval probabilities of the conclusion. In the contribution, we study generalized inference forms having three or more premises. Recently, Gilio has shown that these generalized forms “degrade” – more premises...
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