O teorii strategických her
Some methods for approximating non-linear AR(1) processes by classical linear AR(1) models are proposed. The quality of approximation is studied in special non-linear AR(1) models by means of comparisons of quality of extrapolation and interpolation in the original models and in their approximations. It is assumed that the white noise has either rectangular or exponential distribution.
A generalization of a test for non-nested models in linear regression is derived for the case when there are several regression models with more regressors.
An iterative method for linear extrapolation of twodimensional random sequences is derived. Steps of this procedure are based (i) on Jaglom’s method, (ii) on Hájek’s method. A numerical example is given in the both cases. Finally the iterative method is generalized for the - dimensional case.
The periodic autoregressive process with non-vanishing mean and with exogenous variables is investigated in the paper. It is assumed that the model has also periodic variances. The statistical analysis is based on the Bayes approach with a vague prior density. Estimators of the parameters and asymptotic tests of hypotheses are derived.
Methods for estimating parameters and testing hypotheses in a periodic autoregression are investigated in the paper. The parameters of the model are supposed to be random variables with a vague prior density. The innovation process can have either constant or periodically changing variances. Theoretical results are demonstrated on two simulated series and on two sets of real data.
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