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We estimate the fraction of isogeny classes of abelian varieties over a finite field which have a given characteristic polynomial modulo . As an application we find the proportion of isogeny classes of abelian varieties with a rational point of order .
We estimate the proportion of function fields satisfying certain conditions which imply a function field analogue of the Fontaine-Mazur conjecture. As a byproduct, we compute the fraction of abelian varieties (or even jacobians) over a finite field which have a rational point of order .
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