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Displaying similar documents to “The shortest confidence interval for the probability of success in a negative binomial model”

The shortest randomized confidence interval for probability of success in a negative binomial model

Wojciech Zieliński (2014)

Applicationes Mathematicae

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Zieliński (2012) showed the existence of the shortest confidence interval for a probability of success in a negative binomial distribution. The method of obtaining such an interval was presented as well. Unfortunately, the confidence interval obtained has one disadvantage: it does not keep the prescribed confidence level. In the present article, a small modification is introduced, after which the resulting shortest confidence interval does not have that disadvantage.

Random split of the interval [0,1]

B. Kopociński (2004)

Applicationes Mathematicae

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We define two splitting procedures of the interval [0,1], one using uniformly distributed points on the chosen piece and the other splitting a piece in half. We also define two procedures for choosing the piece to be split; one chooses a piece with a probability proportional to its length and the other chooses each piece with equal probability. We analyse the probability distribution of the lengths of the pieces arising from these procedures.

Beliefs about beliefs, a theory for stochastic assessment of subjective probabilities.

James M. Dickey (1980)

Trabajos de Estadística e Investigación Operativa

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Parameterized families of subjective probability distributions can be used to great advantage to model beliefs of experts, especially when such models include dependence on concomitant variables. In one such model, probabilities of simple events can be expressed in loglinear form. In another, a generalization of the multivariate t distribution has concomitant variables entering linearly through the location vector. Interactive interview methods for assessing this second model and matrix...

On distribution of waiting time for the first failure followed by a limited length success run

Czesław Stępniak (2013)

Applicationes Mathematicae

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Many doctors believe that a patient will survive a heart attack unless a succeeding attack occurs in a week. Treating heart attacks as failures in Bernoulli trials we reduce the lifetime after a heart attack to the waiting time for the first failure followed by a success run shorter than a given k. In order to test the "true" critical period of the lifetime we need its distribution. The probability mass function and cumulative distribution function of the waiting time are expressed in...

An extended problem to Bertrand's paradox

Mostafa K. Ardakani, Shaun S. Wulff (2014)

Discussiones Mathematicae Probability and Statistics

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Bertrand's paradox is a longstanding problem within the classical interpretation of probability theory. The solutions 1/2, 1/3, and 1/4 were proposed using three different approaches to model the problem. In this article, an extended problem, of which Bertrand's paradox is a special case, is proposed and solved. For the special case, it is shown that the corresponding solution is 1/3. Moreover, the reasons of inconsistency are discussed and a proper modeling approach is determined by...

Large losses-probability minimizing approach

Michał Baran (2004)

Applicationes Mathematicae

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The probability minimizing problem for large losses of portfolio in discrete and continuous time models is studied. This gives a generalization of quantile hedging presented in [3].