Beliefs about beliefs, a theory for stochastic assessment of subjective probabilities.
James M. Dickey (1980)
Trabajos de Estadística e Investigación Operativa
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Parameterized families of subjective probability distributions can be used to great advantage to model beliefs of experts, especially when such models include dependence on concomitant variables. In one such model, probabilities of simple events can be expressed in loglinear form. In another, a generalization of the multivariate t distribution has concomitant variables entering linearly through the location vector. Interactive interview methods for assessing this second model and matrix...