Displaying similar documents to “A Language for the construction of preferences under uncertainty.”

Local and regional coherence utility assessment procedures.

Melvin R. Novick, D. F. Dekeyrel, D. T. Chuang (1980)

Trabajos de Estadística e Investigación Operativa

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Novick and Lindley (1978, 1979) have dealt with the use of utility functions for applications in education and have advocated the use of the standard gamble (von Neumann and Morgenstern, 1953) elicitation procedure with the addition of coherence checking using overspecification and a least squares fit. In this procedure utilities are inferred from probability judgements offered by the assessor. This paper describes local and regional coherence procedures which seek utility coherence...

Discontinuity, decision and conflict.

P. J. Harrison, Jim Q. Smith (1980)

Trabajos de Estadística e Investigación Operativa

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The motivation for this paper arises out of the authors experiences in modelling real decision makers where the decisions show not only a continuous response to a continuously changing environment but also sudden or discontinuous changes. The theoretical basis involves a parametric characterisation of the environment, a decision makers perception of it in terms of a twice differentiable Distribution Function and a bounded Loss Function. Under a specified minimizing dynamic, the resultant...

On the foundations of statistics and decision theory.

José M. Bernardo, Javier Girón (1983)

Trabajos de Estadística e Investigación Operativa

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An elementary axiomatic foundation for decision theory is presented at a general enough level to cover standard applications of Bayesian methods. The intuitive meaning of both axioms and results is stressed. It is argued that statistical inference is a particular decision problem to which the axiomatic argument fully applies.

Auctions with Untrustworthy Bidders

Braynov, Sviatoslav, Pavlov, Radoslav (2007)

Serdica Journal of Computing

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The paper analyzes auctions which are not completely enforceable. In such auctions, economic agents may fail to carry out their obligations, and parties involved cannot rely on external enforcement or control mechanisms for backing up a transaction. We propose two mechanisms that make bidders directly or indirectly reveal their trustworthiness. The first mechanism is based on discriminating bidding schedules that separate trustworthy from untrustworthy bidders. The second mechanism...

Optimal alternative robustness in Bayesian Decision Theory.

Fabrizio Ruggeri, Jacinto Martín, David Ríos Insua (2003)

RACSAM

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In Martin et al (2003), we suggested an approach to general robustness studies in Bayesian Decision Theory and Inference, based on ε-contamination neighborhoods. In this note, we generalise the results considering neighborhoods based on norms, specifically, the supremum norm for utilities and the total variation norm for probability distributions. We provide tools to detect changes in preferences between alternatives under perturbations of the prior and/or the utility and the most sensitive...

Coherence of models and utilities: Discussion.

James M. Dickey, William H. DuMouchel, José M. Bernardo, Simon French, Joseph B. Kadane, Dennis V. Lindley, Anthony O'Hagan, Adrian F. M. Smith, Thomas W. F. Stroud (1980)

Trabajos de Estadística e Investigación Operativa

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Discussion on the papers by Leonard, Tom, The roles of inductive modelling and coherence in Bayesian statistics and by Novick, Melvin R., Dekeyrel, D.F. and Chuang, D.T., Local and regional coherence utility assessment procedures, both of them part of a round table on Coherence of models and utilities held in the First International Congress on Bayesian Methods (Valencia, Spain, 28 May - 2 June 1979).

A model for credit scoring: an application of discriminant analysis.

Manuel Artís, Montserrat Guillén, José M.ª Martínez (1994)

Qüestiió

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The application of statistical techniques in decision making, and more specifically for classification requirements, has proved to be adequate in the context of financial problems. In this study, we present the methodology used and the results obtained in the elaboration of a decision-support system for credit assignment. The problem was to provide an automatic tool for a Spanish financial institution that needed to quantify and analyse credit applications from clients. Firstly, we shall...

A classical decision theoretic perspective on worst-case analysis

Moshe Sniedovich (2011)

Applications of Mathematics

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We examine worst-case analysis from the standpoint of classical Decision Theory. We elucidate how this analysis is expressed in the framework of Wald's famous Maximin paradigm for decision-making under strict uncertainty. We illustrate the subtlety required in modeling this paradigm by showing that information-gap's robustness model is in fact a Maximin model in disguise.