Multivariate smooth transition AR model with aggregation operators and application to exchange rates

Tomáš Bacigál

Kybernetika (2007)

  • Volume: 43, Issue: 2, page 245-254
  • ISSN: 0023-5954

Abstract

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An overview of multivariate modelling based on logistic and exponential smooth transition models with transition variable generated by aggregation operators and orders of auto and exogenous regression selected by information criterion separately for each regime is given. Model specification procedure is demonstrated on trivariate exchange rates time series. The application results show satisfactory improvement in fit when particular aggregation operators are used. Source code in the form of Mathematica package is provided.

How to cite

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Bacigál, Tomáš. "Multivariate smooth transition AR model with aggregation operators and application to exchange rates." Kybernetika 43.2 (2007): 245-254. <http://eudml.org/doc/33855>.

@article{Bacigál2007,
abstract = {An overview of multivariate modelling based on logistic and exponential smooth transition models with transition variable generated by aggregation operators and orders of auto and exogenous regression selected by information criterion separately for each regime is given. Model specification procedure is demonstrated on trivariate exchange rates time series. The application results show satisfactory improvement in fit when particular aggregation operators are used. Source code in the form of Mathematica package is provided.},
author = {Bacigál, Tomáš},
journal = {Kybernetika},
keywords = {multivariate STAR; aggregation operator; information criterion; exchange rates; testing for linearity; diagnostics on residuals; multivariate STAR; aggregation operator},
language = {eng},
number = {2},
pages = {245-254},
publisher = {Institute of Information Theory and Automation AS CR},
title = {Multivariate smooth transition AR model with aggregation operators and application to exchange rates},
url = {http://eudml.org/doc/33855},
volume = {43},
year = {2007},
}

TY - JOUR
AU - Bacigál, Tomáš
TI - Multivariate smooth transition AR model with aggregation operators and application to exchange rates
JO - Kybernetika
PY - 2007
PB - Institute of Information Theory and Automation AS CR
VL - 43
IS - 2
SP - 245
EP - 254
AB - An overview of multivariate modelling based on logistic and exponential smooth transition models with transition variable generated by aggregation operators and orders of auto and exogenous regression selected by information criterion separately for each regime is given. Model specification procedure is demonstrated on trivariate exchange rates time series. The application results show satisfactory improvement in fit when particular aggregation operators are used. Source code in the form of Mathematica package is provided.
LA - eng
KW - multivariate STAR; aggregation operator; information criterion; exchange rates; testing for linearity; diagnostics on residuals; multivariate STAR; aggregation operator
UR - http://eudml.org/doc/33855
ER -

References

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  1. Calvo T., Kolesárová A., Komorníková, M., Mesiar R., Aggregation operators: Properties, classes and construction methods, In: Aggregation Operators (T. Calvo, G. Mayor, and R. Mesiar, eds.), Physica–Verlag, New York 2002, pp. 3–140 Zbl1039.03015MR1936383
  2. Dijk D. van, Teräsvirta, T., Franses P. H., Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models – A Survey of Recent Developments, Econometric Institute Research Report EI2000-23, 2000 
  3. Escribano A., Jordá O., Improved testing and specification of smooth transition regression models, In: Nonlinear Time Series Analysis of Economic and Financial Data (P. Rothman, ed.), Kluwer, Boston 1999, pp. 289–319 (1999) MR2478834
  4. Granger C. W. J., Teräsvirta T., Modelling Nonlinear Economic Relationships, Oxford University Press, Oxford 1993 Zbl0893.90030
  5. Harvey D. I., Leybourne S. J., Newbold P., Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors, Internat. J. Forecasting 13 (1997), 281–291 (1997) 
  6. Luukkonen R., Saikkonen, P., Teräsvirta T., Testing linearity against smooth transition autoregressive models, Biometrika 75 (1988), 491–499 (1988) Zbl0657.62109MR0967588
  7. Tsay R. S., Testing and modeling multivariate threshold models, J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 93 (1998), 1188–1202 (1998) Zbl1063.62578MR1649212

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