Displaying similar documents to “Small perturbations with large effects on value-at-risk”

Pricing forward-start options in the HJM framework; evidence from the Polish market

P. Sztuba, A. Weron (2001)

Applicationes Mathematicae

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We show how to use the Gaussian HJM model to price modified forward-start options. Using data from the Polish market we calibrate the model and price this exotic option on the term structure. The specific problems of Central Eastern European emerging markets do not permit the use of the popular lognormal models of forward LIBOR or swap rates. We show how to overcome this difficulty.

VaR bounds for joint portfolios with dependence constraints

Giovanni Puccetti, Ludger Rüschendorf, Dennis Manko (2016)

Dependence Modeling

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Based on a novel extension of classical Hoeffding-Fréchet bounds, we provide an upper VaR bound for joint risk portfolios with fixed marginal distributions and positive dependence information. The positive dependence information can be assumed to hold in the tails, in some central part, or on a general subset of the domain of the distribution function of a risk portfolio. The newly provided VaR bound can be interpreted as a comonotonic VaR computed at a distorted confidence level and...

Some short elements on hedging credit derivatives

Philippe Durand, Jean-Frédéric Jouanin (2007)

ESAIM: Probability and Statistics

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In practice, it is well known that hedging a derivative instrument can never be perfect. In the case of credit derivatives ( synthetic CDO tranche products), a trader will have to face some specific difficulties. The first one is the inconsistence between most of the existing pricing models, where the risk is the occurrence of defaults, and the real hedging strategy, where the trader will protect his portfolio against small CDS spread movements. The second one, which is the main subject...

Generalized CreditRisk+ model and applications

Jakub Szotek (2015)

Annales Universitatis Paedagogicae Cracoviensis. Studia Mathematica

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In the paper we give a mathematical overview of the CreditRisk+ model as a tool used for calculating credit risk in a portfolio of debts and suggest some other applications of the same method of analysis.

Limit distributions of many-particle spectra and q-deformed Gaussian variables

Piotr Śniady (2006)

Banach Center Publications

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We find the limit distributions for a spectrum of a system of n particles governed by a k-body interaction. The hamiltonian of this system is modelled by a Gaussian random matrix. We show that the limit distribution is a q-deformed Gaussian distribution with the deformation parameter q depending on the fraction k/√n. The family of q-deformed Gaussian distributions include the Gaussian distribution and the semicircular law; therefore our result is a generalization of the results of Wigner...

CMPH: a multivariate phase-type aggregate loss distribution

Jiandong Ren, Ricardas Zitikis (2017)

Dependence Modeling

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We introduce a compound multivariate distribution designed for modeling insurance losses arising from different risk sources in insurance companies. The distribution is based on a discrete-time Markov Chain and generalizes the multivariate compound negative binomial distribution, which is widely used for modeling insurance losses.We derive fundamental properties of the distribution and discuss computational aspects facilitating calculations of risk measures of the aggregate loss, as...

Data-driven penalty calibration: A case study for gaussian mixture model selection

Cathy Maugis, Bertrand Michel (2011)

ESAIM: Probability and Statistics

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In the companion paper [C. Maugis and B. Michel, A non asymptotic penalized criterion for Gaussian mixture model selection. 15 (2011) 41–68] , a penalized likelihood criterion is proposed to select a Gaussian mixture model among a specific model collection. This criterion depends on unknown constants which have to be calibrated in practical situations. A “slope heuristics” method is described and experimented to deal with this practical problem. In a model-based clustering context,...

Dependent defaults and losses with factor copula models

Damien Ackerer, Thibault Vatter (2017)

Dependence Modeling

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We present a class of flexible and tractable static factor models for the term structure of joint default probabilities, the factor copula models. These high-dimensional models remain parsimonious with paircopula constructions, and nest many standard models as special cases. The loss distribution of a portfolio of contingent claims can be exactly and efficiently computed when individual losses are discretely supported on a finite grid. Numerical examples study the key features affecting...

An alternative approach to bonus malus

Gracinda Rita Guerreiro, João Tiago Mexia (2004)

Discussiones Mathematicae Probability and Statistics

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Under the assumptions of an open portfolio, i.e., considering that a policyholder can transfer his policy to another insurance company and the continuous arrival of new policyholders into a portfolio which can be placed into any of the bonus classes and not only in the "starting class", we developed a model (Stochastic Vortices Model) to estimate the Long Run Distribution for a Bonus Malus System. These hypothesis render the model quite representative of the reality. With the obtained...

Construction of multivariate distributions: a review of some recent results.

José María Sarabia, Emilio Gómez-Déniz (2008)

SORT

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The construction of multivariate distributions is an active field of research in theoretical and applied statistics. In this paper some recent developments in this field are reviewed. Specifically, we study and review the following set of methods: (a) Construction of multivariate distributions based on order statistics, (b) Methods based on mixtures, (c) Conditionally specified distributions, (d) Multivariate skew distributions, (e) Distributions based on the method of the variables...

State-space models for maxima precipitation

Philippe Naveau, Paul Poncet (2007)

Journal de la société française de statistique

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A very active research field in atmospheric sciences is centered around the modeling of weather extremes. This is mainly due to the large economic and human impacts of such extreme events. In this paper, we focus on the statistical temporal modeling of precipitation maxima because daily and monthly maxima have been recorded for many decades and at various sites. Our goal is to propose two new state-space models whose distributional foundations lie in Extreme Value Theory (EVT). Our first...

Robustness of estimation of first-order autoregressive model under contaminated uniform white noise

Karima Nouali (2009)

Discussiones Mathematicae Probability and Statistics

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The first-order autoregressive model with uniform innovations is considered. In this paper, we study the bias-robustness and MSE-robustness of modified maximum likelihood estimator of parameter of the model against departures from distribution of white noise. We used the generalized Beta distribution to describe these departures.