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Survival probabilities of autoregressive processes

Christoph Baumgarten (2014)

ESAIM: Probability and Statistics

Given an autoregressive process X of order p (i.e. Xn = a1Xn−1 + ··· + apXn−p + Yn where the random variables Y1, Y2,... are i.i.d.), we study the asymptotic behaviour of the probability that the process does not exceed a constant barrier up to time N (survival or persistence probability). Depending on the coefficients a1,..., ap and the distribution of Y1, we state conditions under which the survival probability decays polynomially, faster than polynomially or converges to a positive constant....

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