Man and computer
Updating probabilities by information from only one hypothesis and thereby ignoring alternative hypotheses, is not only biased but leads to progressively imprecise conclusions. In psychology this phenomenon was studied in experiments with the “pseudodiagnosticity task”. In probability logic the phenomenon that additional premises increase the imprecision of a conclusion is known as “degradation”. The present contribution investigates degradation in the context of second order probability distributions....
This paper studies a new model of social opinion dynamics in multiagent system by counting in two important factors, individual susceptibility and anchoring effect. Different from many existing models only focusing on one factor, this model can exhibit not only agreement phenomena, but also disagreement phenomena such as clustering and fluctuation, during opinion evolution. Then we provide several conditions to show how individual susceptibility and anchoring effect work on steady-state behaviors...