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Challenging the empirical mean and empirical variance: A deviation study

Olivier Catoni (2012)

Annales de l'I.H.P. Probabilités et statistiques

We present new M-estimators of the mean and variance of real valued random variables, based on PAC-Bayes bounds. We analyze the non-asymptotic minimax properties of the deviations of those estimators for sample distributions having either a bounded variance or a bounded variance and a bounded kurtosis. Under those weak hypotheses, allowing for heavy-tailed distributions, we show that the worst case deviations of the empirical mean are suboptimal. We prove indeed that for any confidence level, there...

Computational aspects of robust Holt-Winters smoothing based on M -estimation

Christophe Croux, Sarah Gelper, Roland Fried (2008)

Applications of Mathematics

To obtain a robust version of exponential and Holt-Winters smoothing the idea of M -estimation can be used. The difficulty is the formulation of an easy-to-use recursive formula for its computation. A first attempt was made by Cipra (Robust exponential smoothing, J. Forecast. 11 (1992), 57–69). The recursive formulation presented there, however, is unstable. In this paper, a new recursive computing scheme is proposed. A simulation study illustrates that the new recursions result in smaller forecast...

Concept of Data Depth and Its Applications

Ondřej Vencálek (2011)

Acta Universitatis Palackianae Olomucensis. Facultas Rerum Naturalium. Mathematica

Data depth is an important concept of nonparametric approach to multivariate data analysis. The main aim of the paper is to review possible applications of the data depth, including outlier detection, robust and affine-equivariant estimates of location, rank tests for multivariate scale difference, control charts for multivariate processes, and depth-based classifiers solving discrimination problem.

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