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A Bayesian estimate of the risk of tick-borne diseases

Marek Jiruše, Josef Machek, Viktor Beneš, Petr Zeman (2004)

Applications of Mathematics

The paper considers the problem of estimating the risk of a tick-borne disease in a given region. A large set of epidemiological data is evaluated, including the point pattern of collected cases, the population map and covariates, i.e. explanatory variables of geographical nature, obtained from GIS. The methodology covers the choice of those covariates which influence the risk of infection most. Generalized linear models are used and AIC criterion yields the decision. Further, an empirical Bayesian...

A repeated imitation model with dependence between stages: Decision strategies and rewards

Pablo J. Villacorta, David A. Pelta (2015)

International Journal of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science

Adversarial decision making is aimed at determining strategies to anticipate the behavior of an opponent trying to learn from our actions. One defense is to make decisions intended to confuse the opponent, although our rewards can be diminished. This idea has already been captured in an adversarial model introduced in a previous work, in which two agents separately issue responses to an unknown sequence of external inputs. Each agent's reward depends on the current input and the responses of both...

Asymptotic distribution of the conditional regret risk for selecting good exponential populations

Shanti S. Gupta, Friedrich Liese (2000)


In this paper empirical Bayes methods are applied to construct selection rules for the selection of all good exponential distributions. We modify the selection rule introduced and studied by Gupta and Liang [10] who proved that the regret risk converges to zero with rate O ( n - λ / 2 ) , 0 < λ 2 . The aim of this paper is to study the asymptotic behavior of the conditional regret risk n . It is shown that n n tends in distribution to a linear combination of independent χ 2 -distributed random variables. As an application we...

Bayes and empirical bayes tests for the life parameter

Lichun Wang (2005)

Applicationes Mathematicae

We study the one-sided testing problem for the exponential distribution via the empirical Bayes (EB) approach. Under a weighted linear loss function, a Bayes test is established. Using the past samples, we construct an EB test and exhibit its optimal rate of convergence. When the past samples are not directly observable, we work out an EB test by using the deconvolution kernel method and obtain its asymptotic optimality.

Decision-making for long memory data in technical-economic design, fractals and decision area bubbles

Václav Beran (2003)

Applications of Mathematics

Economic and management theories are very often based in their applications on the perception of homogeneity of the application space. The purpose of this article is to query such a conviction and indicate new possible directions of discipline development. The article deals with symbiosis of process and his steering model as a process of management. It is possible that in relative near future it will be necessary to accept approaches and changes in interpretations of decision-making. Applications...

Predictive sample reuse techniques for censored data.

Seymour Geisser (1980)

Trabajos de Estadística e Investigación Operativa

Predictive sample reuse methods usually applied in low structure aparametric paradigms are shown to be useful in certain high structure situations when conjoined with a Bayesian approach. Particular attention is focused on the incomplete data situation for which two alternative sample reuse approaches are devised. The first involves differential weighting and the second a recursive sample reuse algorithm. These are applied to censored exponential survival data. The exponential approach appears to...

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