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A Bayesian estimate of the risk of tick-borne diseases

Marek Jiruše, Josef Machek, Viktor Beneš, Petr Zeman (2004)

Applications of Mathematics

The paper considers the problem of estimating the risk of a tick-borne disease in a given region. A large set of epidemiological data is evaluated, including the point pattern of collected cases, the population map and covariates, i.e. explanatory variables of geographical nature, obtained from GIS. The methodology covers the choice of those covariates which influence the risk of infection most. Generalized linear models are used and AIC criterion yields the decision. Further, an empirical Bayesian...

A repeated imitation model with dependence between stages: Decision strategies and rewards

Pablo J. Villacorta, David A. Pelta (2015)

International Journal of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science

Adversarial decision making is aimed at determining strategies to anticipate the behavior of an opponent trying to learn from our actions. One defense is to make decisions intended to confuse the opponent, although our rewards can be diminished. This idea has already been captured in an adversarial model introduced in a previous work, in which two agents separately issue responses to an unknown sequence of external inputs. Each agent's reward depends on the current input and the responses of both...

Asymptotic distribution of the conditional regret risk for selecting good exponential populations

Shanti S. Gupta, Friedrich Liese (2000)

Kybernetika

In this paper empirical Bayes methods are applied to construct selection rules for the selection of all good exponential distributions. We modify the selection rule introduced and studied by Gupta and Liang [10] who proved that the regret risk converges to zero with rate O ( n - λ / 2 ) , 0 < λ ≤ 2 . The aim of this paper is to study the asymptotic behavior of the conditional regret risk ℛ n . It is shown that n ℛ n tends in distribution to a linear combination of independent χ 2 -distributed random variables. As an application we...

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