Various types of exponential smoothing for data observed at irregular time intervals are surveyed. Double exponential smoothing and some modifications of Holt’s method for this type of data are suggested. A real data example compares double exponential smoothing and Wright’s modification of Holt’s method for data observed at irregular time intervals.
The paper deals with extensions of exponential smoothing type methods for univariate time series with irregular observations. An alternative method to Wright’s modification of simple exponential smoothing based on the corresponding ARIMA process is suggested. Exponential smoothing of order m for irregular data is derived. A similar method using a DLS **discounted least squares** estimation of polynomial trend of order m is derived as well. Maximum likelihood parameters estimation for forecasting...
Recursive time series methods are very popular due to their numerical simplicity. Their theoretical background is usually based on Kalman filtering in state space models (mostly in dynamic linear systems). However, in time series practice one must face frequently to outlying values (outliers), which require applying special methods of robust statistics. In the paper a simple robustification of Kalman filter is suggested using a simple truncation of the recursive residuals. Then this concept is applied...
The naïve and the least-squares extrapolation are investigated in the fractional autoregressive models of the first order. Some explicit formulas are derived for the one and two steps ahead extrapolation.
We derive a formula for -step least-squares extrapolation in non-linear AR processes and compare it with the naïve extrapolation. The least- squares extrapolation depends on the distribution of white noise. Some bounds for it are derived that depend only on the expectation of white noise. An example shows that in general case the difference between both types of extrapolation can be very large. Further, a formula for least-squares extrapolation in multidimensional non-linear AR() process is derived....
We introduce a fractional Langevin equation with α-stable noise and show that its solution is the stationary α-stable Ornstein-Uhlenbeck-type process recently studied by Taqqu and Wolpert. We examine the asymptotic dependence structure of via the measure of its codependence r(θ₁,θ₂,t). We prove that is not a long-memory process in the sense of r(θ₁,θ₂,t). However, we find two natural continuous-time analogues of fractional ARIMA time series with long memory in the framework of the Langevin...
Our purpose in this paper is to provide a general approach to model selection via penalization for Gaussian regression and to develop our point of view about this subject. The advantage and importance of model selection come from the fact that it provides a suitable approach to many different types of problems, starting from model selection per se (among a family of parametric models, which one is more suitable for the data at hand), which includes for instance variable selection in regression models,...
Gaussian semiparametric or local Whittle estimation of the memory parameter in standard long memory processes was proposed by Robinson [18]. This technique shows several advantages over the popular log- periodogram regression introduced by Geweke and Porter–Hudak [7]. In particular under milder assumptions than those needed in the log periodogram regression it is asymptotically more efficient. We analyse the asymptotic behaviour of the Gaussian semiparametric estimate of the memory parameter in...
We study ensembles of similar systems under load of environmental factors. The phenomenon of adaptation has similar properties for systems of different nature. Typically, when the load increases above some threshold, then the adapting systems become more different (variance increases), but the correlation increases too. If the stress continues to increase then the second threshold appears: the correlation achieves maximal value, and start to decrease, but the variance continue to increase. In many...
The paper suggests a generalization of widely used Holt-Winters smoothing and forecasting method for seasonal time series. The general concept of seasonality modeling is introduced both for the additive and multiplicative case. Several special cases are discussed, including a linear interpolation of seasonal indices and a usage of trigonometric functions. Both methods are fully applicable for time series with irregularly observed data (just the special case of missing observations was covered up...
Using the Bahadur representation of a sample quantile for m-dependent and strong mixing random variables, we establish the asymptotic distribution of the Hurwicz estimator for the coefficient of autoregression in a linear process with innovations belonging to the domain of attraction of an α-stable law (1 < α < 2). The present paper extends Hurwicz's result to the autoregressive model.