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Survival probabilities of autoregressive processes

Christoph Baumgarten (2014)

ESAIM: Probability and Statistics

Given an autoregressive process X of order p (i.e. Xn = a1Xn−1 + ··· + apXn−p + Yn where the random variables Y1, Y2,... are i.i.d.), we study the asymptotic behaviour of the probability that the process does not exceed a constant barrier up to time N (survival or persistence probability). Depending on the coefficients a1,..., ap and the distribution of Y1, we state conditions under which the survival probability decays polynomially, faster than polynomially or converges to a positive constant....

Survival probability approach to the relaxation of a macroscopic system in the defect-diffusion framework

Paulina Hetman (2004)

Applicationes Mathematicae

The main objective of this paper is to present a new probabilistic model underlying the universal relaxation laws observed in many fields of science where we associate the survival probability of the system's state with the defect-diffusion framework. Our approach is based on the notion of the continuous-time random walk. To derive the properties of the survival probability of a system we explore the limit theorems concerning either the summation or the extremes: maxima and minima. The forms of...

Tail and moment estimates for sums of independent random variables with logarithmically concave tails

E. Gluskin, S. Kwapień (1995)

Studia Mathematica

For random variables S = i = 1 α i ξ i , where ( ξ i ) is a sequence of symmetric, independent, identically distributed random variables such that l n P ( | ξ i | t ) is a concave function we give estimates from above and from below for the tail and moments of S. The estimates are exact up to a constant depending only on the distribution of ξ. They extend results of S. J. Montgomery-Smith [MS], M. Ledoux and M. Talagrand [LT, Chapter 4.1] and P. Hitczenko [H] for the Rademacher sequence.

Tail and moment estimates for sums of independent random vectors with logarithmically concave tails

Rafał Latała (1996)

Studia Mathematica

Let X i be a sequence of independent symmetric real random variables with logarithmically concave tails. We consider a variable X = v i X i , where v i are vectors of some Banach space. We derive approximate formulas for the tail and moments of ∥X∥. The estimates are exact up to some universal constant and they extend results of S. J. Dilworth and S. J. Montgomery-Smith [1] for the Rademacher sequence and E. D. Gluskin and S. Kwapień [2] for real coefficients.

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