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Survival probabilities of autoregressive processes

Christoph Baumgarten (2014)

ESAIM: Probability and Statistics

Given an autoregressive process X of order p (i.e. Xn = a1Xn−1 + ··· + apXn−p + Yn where the random variables Y1, Y2,... are i.i.d.), we study the asymptotic behaviour of the probability that the process does not exceed a constant barrier up to time N (survival or persistence probability). Depending on the coefficients a1,..., ap and the distribution of Y1, we state conditions under which the survival probability decays polynomially, faster than polynomially or converges to a positive constant....

Survival probability approach to the relaxation of a macroscopic system in the defect-diffusion framework

Paulina Hetman (2004)

Applicationes Mathematicae

The main objective of this paper is to present a new probabilistic model underlying the universal relaxation laws observed in many fields of science where we associate the survival probability of the system's state with the defect-diffusion framework. Our approach is based on the notion of the continuous-time random walk. To derive the properties of the survival probability of a system we explore the limit theorems concerning either the summation or the extremes: maxima and minima. The forms of...

Symmetric models for lifetimes: the role of exchangeable equivalence relations

Anna Gerardi, Barbara Torti (2003)

Bollettino dell'Unione Matematica Italiana

A model of a heterogeneous population partitioned into a finite number of classes according an exchangeable equivalence relation is studied. With this motivation the properties of exchangeable equivalence relations are investigated and, in particular, the structure of its equivalence classes is characterized.

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