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Bayesian estimation of the mean holding time in average semi-Markov control processes

J. Adolfo Minjárez-Sosa, José A. Montoya (2015)

Applicationes Mathematicae

We consider semi-Markov control models with Borel state and action spaces, possibly unbounded costs, and holding times with a generalized exponential distribution with unknown mean θ. Assuming that such a distribution does not depend on the state-action pairs, we introduce a Bayesian estimation procedure for θ, which combined with a variant of the vanishing discount factor approach yields average cost optimal policies.

Bottom-up modeling of domestic appliances with Markov chains and semi-Markov processes

Rajmund Drenyovszki, Lóránt Kovács, Kálmán Tornai, András Oláh, István Pintér (2017)

Kybernetika

In our paper we investigate the applicability of independent and identically distributed random sequences, first order Markov and higher order Markov chains as well as semi-Markov processes for bottom-up electricity load modeling. We use appliance time series from publicly available data sets containing fine grained power measurements. The comparison of models are based on metrics which are supposed to be important in power systems like Load Factor, Loss of Load Probability. Furthermore, we characterize...

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