Bayesian estimation for the two parameters of a Gumbel distribution are obtained based on kth lower record values. Prediction, either point or interval, for future kth lower record values is also presented from a Bayesian view point. Some of the results of [4] can be obtained as special cases of our results (k=1).
Recurrence relations for the marginal, joint and conditional characteristic functions of kth record values from the generalized extreme value distribution are established. These relations are utilized to obtain recurrence relations for single, product and conditional moments of kth record values. Moreover, by making use of the recurrence relations the generalized extreme value distribution is characterized.
In Bivariate Frequency Analysis (BFA) of hydrological events, the study and quantification of the dependence between several variables of interest is commonly carried out through Pearson’s correlation (r), Kendall’s tau (τ) or Spearman’s rho (ρ). These measures provide an overall evaluation of the dependence. However, in BFA, the focus is on the extreme events which occur on the tail of the distribution. Therefore, these measures are not appropriate to quantify the dependence in the tail distribution....
In this paper we consider an autoregressive Pareto process which can be used as an alternative to heavy tailed MARMA. We focus on the tail behavior and prove that the tail empirical quantile function can be approximated by a Gaussian process. This result allows to derive a class of consistent and asymptotically normal estimators for the shape parameter. We will see through simulation that the usual estimation procedure based on an i.i.d. setting may fall short of the desired precision.
The theory of copulas provides a useful tool for modelling dependence in risk management. The goal of this paper is to describe the tail behaviour of bivariate copulas and its role in modelling extreme events. We say that a bivariate copula has a uniform lower tail expansion if near the origin it can be approximated by a homogeneous function L(u,v) of degree 1; and it is said to have a uniform upper tail expansion if the associated survival copula has a lower tail expansion. In this paper we (1)...
The theory of copulas provides a useful tool for modeling dependence in risk management. In insurance and finance, as well as in other applications, dependence of extreme events is particularly important, hence there is a need for a detailed study of the tail behaviour of multivariate copulas. We investigate the class of copulas having regular tails with a uniform expansion. We present several equivalent characterizations of uniform tail expansions. Next, basing on them, we determine the class of...
"A high quantile is a quantile of order q with q close to one." A precise constructive definition of high quantiles is given and optimal estimates are presented.