Estimation multidimensionnelle des contrôles et de l'effet moyen d'une mesure de sécurité routière
Estimation of a Regression Function on a Point Process and its Application to Financial Ruin Risk Forecast
2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: Primary 60G55; secondary 60G25.We estimate a regression function on a point process by the Tukey regressogram method in a general setting and we give an application in the case of a Risk Process. We show among other things that, in classical Poisson model with parameter r, if W is the amount of the claim with finite espectation E(W) = m, Sn (resp. Rn) the accumulated interval waiting time for successive claims (resp. the aggregate claims amount) up to the...
Evidence for nonlinear asymmetric causality in US inflation, metal, and stock returns.
EWMA historical volatility estimators
Extremal moment methods and stochastic orders.
Extremal moment methods and stochastic orders. Application in actuarial science.
Generalized duration measures in a risk immunization setting. Implementation of the Heath-Jarrow-Morton model
The aim of this paper is to set different lower bounds on the change of the expected net cash flow value at time H > 0 in general term structure models, referring to the studies of Fong and Vasiček (1984), Nawalkha and Chambers (1996), and Balbás and Ibáñez (1998) among others. New immunization strategies are derived with new risk measures: generalized duration and generalized M-absolute of Nawalkha and Chambers, and exponential risk measure. Furthermore, examples of specific one-factor HJM models...
Grüss-type bounds for the covariance of transformed random variables.
Harmonic analysis in value at risk calculations.
Value at Risk is a measure of risk exposure of a portfolio and is defined as the maximum possible loss in a certain time frame, typically 1-20 days, and within a certain confidence, typically 95%. Full valuation of a portfolio under a large number of scenarios is a lengthy process. To speed it up, one can make use of the total delta vector and the total gamma matrix of a portfolio and compute a Gaussian integral over a region bounded by a quadric. We use methods from harmonic analysis to find approximate...
Hazard rate model and statistical analysis of a compound point process
A stochastic process cumulating random increments at random moments is studied. We model it as a two-dimensional random point process and study advantages of such an approach. First, a rather general model allowing for the dependence of both components mutually as well as on covariates is formulated, then the case where the increments depend on time is analyzed with the aid of the multiplicative hazard regression model. Special attention is devoted to the problem of prediction of process behaviour....
High level quantile approximations of sums of risks
The approximation of a high level quantile or of the expectation over a high quantile (Value at Risk (VaR) or Tail Value at Risk (TVaR) in risk management) is crucial for the insurance industry.We propose a new method to estimate high level quantiles of sums of risks. It is based on the estimation of the ratio between the VaR (or TVaR) of the sum and the VaR (or TVaR) of the maximum of the risks. We show that using the distribution of the maximum to approximate the VaR is much better than using...
Krátce o současné finanční matematice
Large losses-probability minimizing approach
The probability minimizing problem for large losses of portfolio in discrete and continuous time models is studied. This gives a generalization of quantile hedging presented in [3].
Least squares approximation in Bayesian analysis.
This paper presents in a simple and unified framework the Least-Squares approximation of posterior expectations. Particular structures of the sampling process and of the prior distribution are used to organize and to generalize previous results. The two basic structures are obtained by considering unbiased estimators and exchangeable processes. These ideas are applied to the estimation of the mean. Sufficient reduction of the data is analysed when only the Least-Squares approximation is involved....
Les centenaires
Les «Recherches sur les rentes» de Duvillard (1787) et le taux interne de rentabilité
Cet article étudie un ouvrage dont l’intérêt a été sous-estimé : les Recherches sur les rentes (Paris et Genève 1787) de Duvillard (1755–1832). Son auteur a développé, il y a plus de deux siècles, une technique financière originale analogue à l’actuel « taux interne de rentabilité » (un critère pour les choix d’investissements, fondé sur l’actualisation) et il l’a appliquée à l’évaluation des rentes viagères lors de la crise qui a précédé la Révolution française. Il a utilisé à cet effet des méthodes...
Linear filtering of systems with memory and application to finance.
Local likelihood density estimation and value-at-risk.
Loss protection in pairs trading through minimum profit bounds: A cointegration approach.
Markovian Black and Scholes.