ABSTRACT - On the Heuristics of Statistical Results.
Employing recently derived asymptotic representation of the least trimmed squares estimator, the combinations of the forecasts with constraints are studied. Under assumption of unbiasedness of individual forecasts it is shown that the combination without intercept and with constraint imposed on the estimate of regression coefficients that they sum to one, is better than others. A numerical example is included to support theoretical conclusions.
Asymptotic normality of the least trimmed squares estimator is proved under general conditions. At the end of paper a discussion of applicability of the estimator (including the discussion of algorithm for its evaluation) is offered.
The consistency of the least trimmed squares estimator (see Rousseeuw [Rous] or Hampel et al. [HamRonRouSta]) is proved under general conditions. The assumptions employed in paper are discussed in details to clarify the consequences for the applications.
-consistency of the least trimmed squares estimator is proved under general conditions. The proof is based on deriving the asymptotic linearity of normal equations.
A robust version of the Ordinary Least Squares accommodating the idea of weighting the order statistics of the squared residuals (rather than directly the squares of residuals) is recalled and its properties are studied. The existence of solution of the corresponding extremal problem and the consistency under heteroscedasticity is proved.
The proof of consistency instrumental weighted variables, the robust version of the classical instrumental variables is given. It is proved that all solutions of the corresponding normal equations are contained, with high probability, in a ball, the radius of which can be selected - asymptotically - arbitrarily small. Then also -consistency is proved. An extended numerical study (the Part II of the paper) offers a picture of behavior of the estimator for finite samples under various types and levels...
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