Exponential inequalities for self-normalized processes with applications.
For a sequence of statistical experiments with a finite parameter set the asymptotic behavior of the maximum risk is studied for the problem of classification into disjoint subsets. The exponential rates of the optimal decision rule is determined and expressed in terms of the normalized limit of moment generating functions of likelihood ratios. Necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of adaptive classification rules in the sense of Rukhin [Ru1] are given. The results are applied to...
Time series analysis deals with records that are collected over time. The objectives of time series analysis depend on the applications, but one of the main goals is to predict future values of the series. These values depend, usually in a stochastic manner, on the observations available at present. Such dependence has to be considered when predicting the future from its past, taking into account trend, seasonality and other features of the data. Some of the most successful forecasting methods are...