Complex hyperbolic manifolds and exotic smooth structures.
According to Ando's theorem, the oriented bordism group of fold maps of n-manifolds into n-space is isomorphic to the stable n-stem. Among such fold maps we define two geometric operations corresponding to the composition and to the Toda bracket in the stable stem through Ando's isomorphism. By using these operations we explicitly construct several fold maps with convenient properties, including a fold map which represents the generator of the stable 6-stem.
To obtain a robust version of exponential and Holt-Winters smoothing the idea of -estimation can be used. The difficulty is the formulation of an easy-to-use recursive formula for its computation. A first attempt was made by Cipra (Robust exponential smoothing, J. Forecast. 11 (1992), 57–69). The recursive formulation presented there, however, is unstable. In this paper, a new recursive computing scheme is proposed. A simulation study illustrates that the new recursions result in smaller forecast...