The purpose of this work is a study of the following insurance reserve model: $R\left(t\right)=\eta +{\int }_0^{t}p(s,R\left(s\right))ds+{\int }_0^t\sigma (s,R\left(s\right))d{W}_s-Z\left(t\right)$, t ∈ [0,T], P(η ≥ c) ≥ 1-ϵ, ϵ ≥ 0. Under viability-type assumptions on a pair (p,σ) the estimation γ with the property: $in{f}_{0\le t\le T}PR\left(t\right)\ge c\ge \gamma$ is considered.

We prove the existence of the conditional intensity of a random measure that is absolutely continuous with respect to its mean; when there exists an L${}^p$-intensity, $p>1$, the conditional intensity is obtained at the same time almost surely and in the mean.

Let X = (Xₜ,ℱₜ) be a continuous BMO-martingale, that is, ${\left|\right|X\left|\right|}_{BMO}\equiv su{p}_T\left|\right|E\left[\right|X_{\infty }-X_T\left|\right|{ℱ}_T{\left]\right||}_{\infty }<\infty$, where the supremum is taken over all stopping times T. Define the critical exponent b(X) by $b\left(X\right)=b>0:su{p}_T\left|\right|E\left[exp\left(b²(⟨X{⟩}_{\infty }-⟨X{⟩}_T)\right)\right|{ℱ}_T]{\left|\right|}_{\infty }<\infty$, where the supremum is taken over all stopping times T. Consider the continuous martingale q(X) defined by $q\left(X\right)ₜ=E\left[⟨X{⟩}_{\infty }\right|ℱₜ]-E\left[⟨X{⟩}_{\infty }\right|ℱ₀]$. We use q(X) to characterize the distance between ⟨X⟩ and the class $L^{\infty }$ of all bounded martingales in the space of continuous BMO-martingales, and we show that the inequalities $1/4d₁(q\left(X\right),L^{\infty })\le b\left(X\right)\le 4/d₁(q\left(X\right),L^{\infty })$ hold for every continuous BMO-martingale X.

Necessary and sufficient conditions are found for the exponential Orlicz norm (generated by ${\psi }_p\left(x\right)={exp\left(\right|x|}^p)-1$ with 0 < p ≤ 2) of $ma{x}_{0\le t\le \tau }\left|B_t\right|$ or $|B_{\tau }|$ to be finite, where $B={\left(B_t\right)}_{t\ge 0}$ is a standard Brownian motion and τ is a stopping time for B. The conditions are in terms of the moments of the stopping time τ. For instance, we find that $\parallel ma{x}_{0\le t\le \tau }\left|B_t\right|{\parallel }_{{\psi }_1}<\infty$ as soon as $E\left({\tau }^k\right)=O\left(C^k{k}^k\right)$ for some constant C > 0 as k → ∞ (or equivalently $\parallel \tau {\parallel }_{{\psi }_1}<\infty$). In particular, if τ ∼ Exp(λ) or $\left|N\right(0,{\sigma }^2\left)\right|$ then the last condition is satisfied, and we obtain $\parallel ma{x}_{0\le t\le \tau }\left|B_t\right|{\parallel }_{{\psi }_1}\le K\surd E\left(\tau \right)$ with some universal constant K > 0....

In this paper we solve the basic fractional analogue of the classical infinite time horizon linear-quadratic gaussian regulator problem. For a completely observable controlled linear system driven by a fractional brownian motion, we describe explicitely the optimal control policy which minimizes an asymptotic quadratic performance criterion.

In this paper we solve the basic fractional analogue of the classical infinite time horizon linear-quadratic Gaussian regulator problem. For a completely observable controlled linear system driven by a fractional Brownian motion, we describe explicitely the optimal control policy which minimizes an asymptotic quadratic performance criterion.

In order to develop a general criterion for proving strong consistency of estimators in Statistics of stochastic processes, we study an extension, to the continuous-time case, of the strong law of large numbers for discrete time square integrable martingales (e.g. Neveu, 1965, 1972). Applications to estimation in diffusion models are given.