I propose a nonlinear Bayesian methodology to estimate the latent states which are partially observed in financial market. The distinguishable character of my methodology is that the recursive Bayesian estimation can be represented by some deterministic partial differential equation (PDE) (or evolution equation in the general case) parameterized by the underlying observation path. Unlike the traditional stochastic filtering equation, this dynamical representation is continuously dependent on the...

The paper concerns a model of influence in which agents make their decisions on a certain issue. We assume that each agent is inclined to make a particular decision, but due to a possible influence of the others, his final decision may be different from his initial inclination. Since in reality the influence does not necessarily stop after one step, but may iterate, we present a model which allows us to study the dynamic of influence. An innovative...

The paper concerns a model of influence in which agents make their decisions on a certain issue. We assume that each agent is inclined to make a particular decision, but due to a possible influence of the others, his final decision may be different from his initial inclination. Since in reality the influence does not necessarily stop after one step, but may iterate, we present a model which allows us to study the dynamic of influence. An innovative...

We present a simplified approach to the analytical approximation of the transition density related to a general local volatility model. The methodology is sufficiently flexible to be extended to time-dependent coefficients, multi-dimensional stochastic volatility models, degenerate parabolic PDEs related to Asian options and also to include jumps.

Option pricing models are an important part of financial markets worldwide. The PDE formulation of these models leads to analytical solutions only under very strong simplifications. For more general models the option price needs to be evaluated by numerical techniques. First, based on an ideal pure diffusion process for two risky asset prices with an additional path-dependent variable for continuous arithmetic average, we present a general form of PDE for pricing of Asian option contracts on two...

Under real market conditions, there exist many cases when it is inevitable to adopt numerical approximations of option prices due to non-existence of analytical formulae. Obviously, any numerical technique should be tested for the cases when the analytical solution is well known. The paper is devoted to the discontinuous Galerkin method applied to European option pricing under the Merton jump-diffusion model, when the evolution of the asset prices is driven by a Lévy process with finite activity....

The evaluation of option premium is a very delicate issue arising from the assumptions made under a financial market model, and pricing of a wide range of options is generally feasible only when numerical methods are involved. This paper is based on our recent research on numerical pricing of path-dependent multi-asset options and extends these results also to the case of Asian options with fixed strike. First, we recall the three-dimensional backward parabolic PDE describing the evolution of European-style...

The real options approach interprets a flexibility value, embedded in a project, as an option premium. The object of interest is to valuate real options to change operating scale, typical for natural resources industry. The evolution of the project as well as option prices is decribed by partial differential equations of the Black-Scholes type, linked through a payoff function given by a type of the flexibility provided. The governing equations are discretized by the discontinuous Galerkin method...

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 65M06, 65M12.In this paper we explore the numerical diffusion introduced by two nonstandard finite difference schemes applied to the Black-Scholes partial differential equation for pricing discontinuous payoff and low volatility options. Discontinuities in the initial conditions require applying nonstandard non-oscillating finite difference schemes such as the exponentially fitted finite difference schemes suggested by D. Duffy and the Crank-Nicolson variant...

We introduce the concept of mean-field optimal control which is the rigorous limit process connecting finite dimensional optimal control problems with ODE constraints modeling multi-agent interactions to an infinite dimensional optimal control problem with a constraint given by a PDE of Vlasov-type, governing the dynamics of the probability distribution of interacting agents. While in the classical mean-field theory one studies the behavior of a large number of small individuals freely interacting...

Traffic flow is modeled by a conservation law describing the density of cars. It is assumed that each driver chooses his own departure time in order to minimize the sum of a departure and an arrival cost. There are N groups of drivers, The i-th group consists of κi drivers, sharing the same departure and arrival costs ϕi(t),ψi(t). For any given population sizes κ1,...,κn, we prove the existence of a Nash equilibrium solution, where no driver can lower his own total cost by choosing a different departure...

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 65M06, 65M12.The paper is devoted to pricing options characterized by discontinuities in the initial conditions of the respective Black-Scholes partial differential equation. Finite difference schemes are examined to highlight how discontinuities can generate numerical drawbacks such as spurious oscillations. We analyze the drawbacks of the Crank-Nicolson scheme that is most frequently used numerical method in Finance because of its second order accuracy....

The paper presents a discontinuous Galerkin method for solving partial integro-differential equations arising from the European as well as American option pricing when the underlying asset follows an exponential variance gamma process. For practical purposes of numerical solving we introduce the modified option pricing problem resulting from a localization to a bounded domain and an approximation of small jumps, and we discuss the related error estimates. Then we employ a robust numerical procedure...