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Holt-Winters method with general seasonality

Tomáš Hanzák (2012)

Kybernetika

The paper suggests a generalization of widely used Holt-Winters smoothing and forecasting method for seasonal time series. The general concept of seasonality modeling is introduced both for the additive and multiplicative case. Several special cases are discussed, including a linear interpolation of seasonal indices and a usage of trigonometric functions. Both methods are fully applicable for time series with irregularly observed data (just the special case of missing observations was covered up...

Homomorphisms to ℝ constructed from random walks

Anna Erschler, Anders Karlsson (2010)

Annales de l’institut Fourier

We give a construction of homomorphisms from a group into the reals using random walks on the group. The construction is an alternative to an earlier construction that works in more general situations. Applications include an estimate on the drift of random walks on groups of subexponential growth admitting no nontrivial homomorphism to the integers and inequalities between the asymptotic drift and the asymptotic entropy. Some of the entropy estimates obtained have applications independent of the...

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