On some minimax sequential decision problems with partial observability
An elementary axiomatic foundation for decision theory is presented at a general enough level to cover standard applications of Bayesian methods. The intuitive meaning of both axioms and results is stressed. It is argued that statistical inference is a particular decision problem to which the axiomatic argument fully applies.
In Martin et al (2003), we suggested an approach to general robustness studies in Bayesian Decision Theory and Inference, based on ε-contamination neighborhoods. In this note, we generalise the results considering neighborhoods based on norms, specifically, the supremum norm for utilities and the total variation norm for probability distributions. We provide tools to detect changes in preferences between alternatives under perturbations of the prior and/or the utility and the most sensitive direction....
Suppose that at any stage of a statistical experiment a control variable that affects the distribution of the observed data at this stage can be used. The distribution of depends on some unknown parameter , and we consider the problem of testing multiple hypotheses , , allowing the data to be controlled by , in the following sequential context. The experiment starts with assigning a value to the control variable and observing as a response. After some analysis, another value for...
This work deals with a general problem of testing multiple hypotheses about the distribution of a discrete-time stochastic process. Both the Bayesian and the conditional settings are considered. The structure of optimal sequential tests is characterized.