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Scaling of Stochasticity in Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever Epidemics

M. Aguiar, B.W. Kooi, J. Martins, N. Stollenwerk (2012)

Mathematical Modelling of Natural Phenomena

In this paper we analyze the stochastic version of a minimalistic multi-strain model, which captures essential differences between primary and secondary infections in dengue fever epidemiology, and investigate the interplay between stochasticity, seasonality and import. The introduction of stochasticity is needed to explain the fluctuations observed in some of the available data sets, revealing a scenario where noise and complex deterministic skeleton...

Seasonal Forcing Drives Spatio-Temporal Pattern Formation in Rabies Epidemics

N. V. Festenberg, T. Gross, B. Blasius (2010)

Mathematical Modelling of Natural Phenomena

Seasonal forcing is identified as a key pattern generating mechanism in an epidemic model of rabies dispersal. We reduce an established individual-based high-detail model down to a deterministic conceptual model. The characteristic wave pattern characterized by high densities of infected individuals is maintained throughout the reduction process. In our model it is evident that seasonal forcing is the dominant factor that drives pattern formation. In particular we show that seasonal forcing can...

Singular Perturbation Analysis of Travelling Waves for a Model in Phytopathology

J. B. Burie, A. Calonnec, A. Ducrot (2010)

Mathematical Modelling of Natural Phenomena

We investigate the structure of travelling waves for a model of a fungal disease propagating over a vineyard. This model is based on a set of ODEs of the SIR-type coupled with two reaction-diffusion equations describing the dispersal of the spores produced by the fungus inside and over the vineyard. An estimate of the biological parameters in the model suggests to use a singular perturbation analysis. It allows us to compute the speed and the profile of the travelling waves. The analytical results...

Skupinové testování – oddělující systémy

A. Jančařík, Tomáš Kepka (2021)

Pokroky matematiky, fyziky a astronomie

Otázkami spojenými s testováním vzorků se v souvislosti s pandemií covid-19 začala zabývat i širší veřejnost. Jednou z otázek, která byla v souvislosti s testováním diskutována, byla i otázka tzv. poolování. Cílem předkládaného článku je představit jeden z matematických nástrojů -- oddělující systémy, který lze při spojování vzorků a jejich následném testování efektivně využít. Všechna odvození jsou realizována jen s využitím elementární matematiky tak, aby bylo možné dosažené výsledky nejen použít...

Some mathematical problems arising in heterogeneous insular ecological models.

Sébastien Gaucel, Michel Langlais (2002)

RACSAM

En esta nota se analizan dos modelos matemáticos deterministas planteados en problemas ecológicos causados por la introducción de nuevas especies en ambientes insulares heterogéneos. En el primero desarrollamos un modelo epidemológico con transmisión indirecta del virus por medio del ambiente. En el segundo se introduce un modelo específico de depredador-presa que exhibe la extinción en tiempo finito de las especies. Ambos modelos involucran sistemas de ecuaciones en derivadas parciales con interesantes...

Spread Pattern Formation of H5N1-Avian Influenza and its Implications for Control Strategies

R. Liu, V. R. S. K. Duvvuri, J. Wu (2008)

Mathematical Modelling of Natural Phenomena

Mechanisms contributing to the spread of avian influenza seem to be well identified, but how their interplay led to the current worldwide spread pattern of H5N1 influenza is still unknown due to the lack of effective global surveillance and relevant data. Here we develop some deterministic models based on the transmission cycle and modes of H5N1 and focusing on the interaction among poultry, wild birds and environment. Some of the model parameters are obtained from existing literatures, and others...

Stability of the Endemic Coexistence Equilibrium for One Host and Two Parasites

T. Dhirasakdanon, H. R. Thieme (2010)

Mathematical Modelling of Natural Phenomena

For an SI type endemic model with one host and two parasite strains, we study the stability of the endemic coexistence equilibrium, where the host and both parasite strains are present. Our model, which is a system of three ordinary differential equations, assumes complete cross-protection between the parasite strains and reduced fertility and increased mortality of infected hosts. It also assumes that one parasite strain is exclusively vertically...

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