The paper deals with some practical problems connected with the classical exponential smoothing in time series. The fundamental theorem of the exponential smoothing is extended to the case with missing observations and an interpolation procedure in the framework of the exponential smoothing is described. A simple method of the exponential smoothing for multivariate time series is suggested.
The Lyapunov exponent is a statistic that measures the sensitive dependence of the dynamic behaviour of a system on its initial conditions. Estimates of Lyapunov exponents are often used to characterize the qualitative population dynamics of insect time series. The methodology for estimation of the exponent for an observed, noisy, short ecological time series is still under development. Some progress has been made recently in providing measures of error for these exponents. Studies that do not account...
The paper is devoted to the spectrum of multivariate randomly sampled autoregressive moving-average (ARMA) models. We determine precisely the spectrum numerator coefficients of the randomly sampled ARMA models. We give results when the non-zero poles of the initial ARMA model are simple. We first prove the results when the probability generating function of the random sampling law is injective, then we precise the results when it is not injective.
In this paper the tools of pseudo-linear algebra are applied to the realization problem, allowing to unify the study of the continuous- and discrete-time nonlinear control systems under a single algebraic framework. The realization of nonlinear input-output equation, defined in terms of the pseudo-linear operator, in the classical state-space form is addressed by the polynomial approach in which the system is described by two polynomials from the non-commutative ring of skew polynomials. This allows...
One of the most widely-used multivariate conditional volatility models is the dynamic conditional correlation (or DCC) specification. However, the underlying stochastic process to derive DCC has not yet been established, which has made problematic the derivation of asymptotic properties of the Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimators (QMLE). To date, the statistical properties of the QMLE of the DCC parameters have purportedly been derived under highly restrictive and unverifiable regularity conditions....
A procedure for computation of stationary density of the absolute autoregression (AAR) model driven by white noise with symmetrical density is described. This method is used for deriving explicit formulas for stationary distribution and further characteristics of AAR models with given distribution of white noise. The cases of Gaussian, Cauchy, Laplace and discrete rectangular distribution are investigated in detail.
Methods for estimating parameters and testing hypotheses in a periodic autoregression are investigated in the paper. The parameters of the model are supposed to be random variables with a vague prior density. The innovation process can have either constant or periodically changing variances. Theoretical results are demonstrated on two simulated series and on two sets of real data.
Many protein sequences present non trivial periodicities, such as cysteine signatures and leucine heptads. These known periodicities probably represent a small percentage of the total number of sequences periodic structures, and it is useful to have general tools to detect such sequences and their period in large databases of sequences. We compare three statistics adapted from those used in time series analysis: a generalisation of the simple autocovariance based on a similarity score and two statistics...
Many protein sequences present non trivial periodicities, such as cysteine signatures and leucine heptads. These known periodicities probably represent a small percentage of the total number of sequences periodic structures, and it is useful to have general tools to detect such sequences and their period in large databases of sequences. We compare three statistics adapted from those used in time series analysis: a generalisation of the simple autocovariance based on a similarity score and two statistics...