In this paper we obtain root-n consistency and functional central limit theorems in weighted L1-spaces for plug-in estimators of the two-step transition density in the classical stationary linear autoregressive model of order one, assuming essentially only that the innovation density has bounded variation. We also show that plugging in a properly weighted residual-based kernel estimator for the unknown innovation density improves on plugging in an unweighted residual-based kernel estimator....

We discuss a method for obtaining Poincaré-type inequalities on arbitrary convex bodies in ${ℝ}^n$. Our technique involves a dual version of Bochner’s formula and a certain moment map, and it also applies to some non-convex sets. In particular, we generalize the central limit theorem for convex bodies to a class of non-convex domains, including the unit balls of ${\ell }_p$-spaces in ${ℝ}^n$ for $0\<p\<1$.

Let T be Dunford–Schwartz operator on a probability space (Ω, μ). For f∈Lp(μ), p>1, we obtain growth conditions on ‖∑k=1nTkf‖p which imply that (1/n1/p)∑k=1nTkf→0 μ-a.e. In the particular case that p=2 and T is the isometry induced by a probability preserving transformation we get better results than in the general case; these are used to obtain a quenched central limit theorem for additive functionals of stationary ergodic Markov chains, which improves those of Derriennic–Lin and Wu–Woodroofe....

We distinguish a class of unbounded operators in ${}^r$, r ≥ 1, related to the self-adjoint operators in ². For these operators we prove a kind of individual ergodic theorem, replacing the classical Cesàro averages by Borel summability. The result is equivalent to a version of Gaposhkin’s criterion for the a.e. convergence of operators. In the proof, the theory of martingales and interpolation in ${}^r$-spaces are applied.

Stein's method is used to prove approximations in total variation to the distributions of integer valued random variables by (possibly signed) compound Poisson measures. For sums of independent random variables, the results obtained are very explicit, and improve upon earlier work of Kruopis (1983) and Čekanavičius (1997); coupling methods are used to derive concrete expressions for the error bounds. An example is given to illustrate the potential for application to sums of dependent random variables. ...

Let X be a one-dimensional positive recurrent diffusion with initial distribution ν and invariant probability μ. Suppose that for some p>1, ∃a∈ℝ such that ∀x∈ℝ, and , where Ta is the hitting time of a. For such a diffusion, we derive non-asymptotic deviation bounds of the form ℙν(|(1/t)∫0tf(Xs) ds−μ(f)|≥ε)≤K(p)(1/tp/2)(1/εp)A(f)p. Here f bounded or bounded and compactly supported and A(f)=‖f‖∞ when f is bounded and A(f)=μ(|f|) when f is bounded and compactly supported. We also give, under...

Consider a strong Markov process in continuous time, taking values in some Polish state space. Recently, Douc et al. [Stoc. Proc. Appl. 119, (2009) 897–923] introduced verifiable conditions in terms of a supermartingale property implying an explicit control of modulated moments of hitting times. We show how this control can be translated into a control of polynomial moments of abstract regeneration times which are obtained by using the regeneration method of Nummelin, extended to the time-continuous...

Take a centered random walk $S_n$ and consider the sequence of its partial sums $A_n:={\sum }_{i=1}^n{S}_i$. Suppose $S_1$ is in the domain of normal attraction of an $\alpha$-stable law with $1lt;\alpha \le 2$. Assuming that $S_1$ is either right-exponential (i.e. $\mathbb{P}(S_{1}gt;x|S_{1}gt;0)={\mathrm{e}}^{-ax}$ for some $agt;0$ and all $xgt;0$) or right-continuous (skip free), we prove that $$\mathbb{P}\{A_{1}gt;0,\cdots ,A_{N}gt;0\}\sim C_{\alpha }{N}^{1/\left(2\alpha \right)-1/2}$$ as $N\to \infty$, where $C_{\alpha }gt;0$ depends on the distribution of the walk. We also consider a conditional version of this problem and study positivity of integrated discrete bridges.

We consider the parabolic Anderson model, the Cauchy problem for the heat equation with random potential in ℤd. We use i.i.d. potentials ξ:ℤd→ℝ in the third universality class, namely the class of almost bounded potentials, in the classification of van der Hofstad, König and Mörters [Commun. Math. Phys.267 (2006) 307–353]. This class consists of potentials whose logarithmic moment generating function is regularly varying with parameter γ=1, but do not belong to the class of so-called double-exponentially...

Let $f\in \mathbb{Z}\left[x\right]$ be a polynomial of degree $d\ge 3$ without roots of multiplicity $d$ or $(d-1)$. Erdős conjectured that, if $f$ satisfies the necessary local conditions, then $f\left(p\right)$ is free of $(d-1)$th powers for infinitely many primes $p$. This is proved here for all $f$ with sufficiently high entropy.The proof serves to demonstrate two innovations: a strong repulsion principle for integer points on curves of positive genus, and a number-theoretical analogue of Sanov’s theorem from the theory of large deviations.